Re-Reading Between the Lines, Western Conference: Early Returns — Part 2
While some were more challenging than others, by and large, 58 of the 60 team sections came together with minimal (more or less) fuss.
That checking in on the Lakers — a moderate struggle at the best of times — took an extra little bit wasn’t terribly surprising. Much more surprising was the minimal time needed to actually knock it out once I got going.
And then there were the Wolves. For reasons I cannot properly articulate — beyond an occasional bone-deep aversion to finishing mundane things — I wrestled with Minny for far longer than I care to admit or attempt to justify. Ah, well, we’re here now, right??
(Note: All stats and records here are current as of the end of action on Saturday, November 15. For Part 1 of the West piece, the date was November 11. If there are contradictions, this is why.)
Minnesota Timberwolves
Current record: 4-3 (7th in the West)
My preseason call: UNDER 50.5 wins
What I expected: “This should remain a good team, but I don’t see how running back a 49-win roster minus a key role player translates to 51 wins in a division that’s loaded for bear, in a brutal Western Conference.”
What’s weird: I’ve tried not to be belligerent about it, but I’m just not completely there with Anthony Edwards. This predates last spring’s playoff thumping of the Lakers.
It’s strangely got nothing to do with Edwards as a player. He’s awesome. Athletic, tough, intelligent, and never not going hard. He is also a highly willing and more than capable defender. He’s a legit top-ten superstar with no discernible weaknesses. The best player on back-to-back conference finals teams. There’s nothing to not love.
And yet, there is something that keeps me from taking that final step with Ant. The step that I willingly took after getting Luka completely wrong, and with an objectively less accomplished Cade Cunningham. This is not entirely rational.
I’ve got a working theory that it’s partly some misplaced, long-simmering bitterness for becoming what 15-year-old me thought Isaiah Rider would:
A huge part of it, though — I’ve written briefly about this before — is the enthusiasm with which so many of those inclined to care about such things have clamored to coronate Edwards. Few non-consequential things are more consistently grating.
Again, Ant is a superstar and perennial MVP candidate, one who can do some version of the stuff he does so well for years to come. But not that. He’s unquestionably a franchise player, but he’s not the franchise. He’ll always be there, being excellent, and his resume will be stacked by the time he’s done. But, as tedious as I find Face of the NBA Discourse, I don’t think he’s it. At the risk of damning with faint praise, Ant’s more Karl Malone than Mike, Kobe, Steph, or LeBron.
Agree or disagree, it’s all fine. I’ve been wrong about this shit before. (See: Gilgeous-Alexander, Shai; Dončić, Luka.)
Looking ahead: A problem that’s arisen from the above is a general, not dismissiveness, but a “meh1” in considering a very good Timberwolves team that is currently an excellent version of itself.
In his last five (four of them wins) following a stinker in his return from a hamstring injury that kept him out four games, Ant’s been excellent, averaging 30.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 1.6 steals per game, while making 38% of his 3-pointers.
Opinions on whether or not it’s his “true level” will vary, but Julius Randle’s currently doing a hell of a “foundational superstar” impression. Jaden McDaniels has been very good at both ends, averaging 17.7 points, 4.5 boards, and 1.3 blocks. Even assuming his offensive numbers correct as his 3-point percentage falls below 50%, he’s playing the best ball of his career. Donte DiVincenzo has played well and is a seamless fit in the backcourt alongside Ant. Naz Reid continues to do his thing. And while most of his numbers are well off last season’s, Rudy Gobert remains a defensive difference-maker and, thanks to 76.3% shooting, offers value on offense.
At full strength, this is a really good team. This is also a team that should get a nice boost from its upcoming schedule. Over their next ten games, the Wolves face one bona fide power (OKC, on November 26), two other winning teams (the Spurs and Suns), but should otherwise fare decently against the Mavs, Wizards, Kings, Celtics, and Pelicans (twice).
This is also not a title contender. First, there is simply not enough behind the top six to weather a significant absence. That significant caveat aside, the complete lack of evidence thus far that this iteration of this team will rise to the level of its competition when asked is a potential problem. The Wolves’ lone win over a currently-better-than-.500 team came on opening night, by four points, over the 6-6 Blazers. They’ve since lost five times in five tries against the only quality competition they’ve faced — the Nuggets and Lakers, twice each, and the Knicks, in New York — four times by double digits.
I know they’ve been to the conference finals each of the last two years, but their bonafides don’t paper over not beating anyone. Honestly, for as much as I tortured myself with this bit, I am basically where I was with this team a month ago: 48-50 in the regular season, and maybe one playoff series.
New Orleans Pelicans
Current record: 2-10 (15th in the West)
My preseason call: UNDER 30.5 wins
What I expected: “Where the bookmakers found a roughly 50% jump in win is well beyond me. I don’t expect another 60-loss debacle in NOLA, but I absolutely do not see 30+ wins. In reality, this squad strikes me as better served stripping down, accumulating assets, and aiming for an insta-rebuild than trying to win, like, 34 games this season. Too bad next year’s first-rounder is gone.”
What’s weird: That there was any measure of optimism around this team to begin with.
Looking ahead: Someone please save Trey Murphy from this debacle.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Current record: 12-1 (1st in the West)
My preseason call: OVER 62.5 wins
What I expected: “These guys cruised to 68 wins last season with Holmgren and Hartenstein missing a combined 75 games. Barring a catastrophe, there’s no reason to expect them to be six games worse in 2025-26.”
What’s weird: Not a damn thing.
Looking ahead: Until further notice, more of the same.
Phoenix Suns
Current record: 8-5 (6th in the West)
My preseason call: UNDER 30.5 wins
What I expected: “There are enough recognizable, young-to-prime-age names here that the Suns’ situation isn’t as aggressively bleak as it was 8-10 years ago. That said, this team is capped out, has only one true, top-end talent, and minimal means for upgrades. They’ll also be playing for a fourth head coach in four years, in a stacked Western Conference.
I really like Devin Booker a lot and Jalen Green, Royce O’Neale, and Dillon Brooks are fine, but against this backdrop, with a glaring hole at the point and minimal proven depth up front, the Suns need more to top 30 wins.”
What’s weird: Or perhaps not? I spent some time last digging through the Suns’ decade-long round-trip to existential despair. Focusing on the long-term concerns and obstacles to sustained, sustainable contention — which remain in place — obscured the possibility of this team cohering into something beyond the sum of its parts.
I worried that my affinity for Devin Booker would cloud my judgment with undue optimism. I thought Dillon Brooks would, if not exactly “melt down,” then underwhelm and ultimately agitate. Despite a near-decade-long track record of steady, useful play highlighted by solid 3-point shooting (38.5%), I decided Royce O’Neale was suddenly someone else. As he celebrated his 30th birthday after his worst season since probably his rookie season (2018-19), which came on the heels of a new four-year, $70-million contract, I tossed Grayson Allen onto the JAG2 pile, without a thought. An early draft of that lengthy October piece mentioned “Connor Gillespie3.” I cannot confidently say I even knew who Ryan Dunn was.
Looking back, it was perfect conditions for painting myself into a “reverse Clippers corner,” if you will.
Oops.
As it turns out, Book is still a top-15 guy. Four weeks in, he’s playing the best ball of his career, averaging career highs in scoring (28.5) and assists (7.0), with 4.2 rebounds per game, with career-best marks for overall (50%) and True Shooting (62.2%). He is also the ideal superstar for turbulent times.
After missing six of the first ten games, Brooks has been excellent, scoring 20.3 intermittently efficient points and playing plus D. It turns out O’Neale is the solid professional he’s been all along. Allen is still an excellent 3-point shooter (44.7%) and, in 32 minutes per game, is averaging clear career-highs in points (18.5), assists (4.7), and steals (1.6). Collin Gillespie is everything the point guard-light Suns could have hoped for. In 24 minutes per game, he’s scoring (9.5), hitting from deep (39% on 6.2 attempts per game), and distributing responsibly (4.9 assists, vs. just 1.4 turnovers). I’m not sure what Dunn — of whom I am now very much aware — is long-term, but he’s a fun watch and his energy and athleticism have really helped at both ends.
Looking ahead: I’m still stopping short of declaring these Suns “good,” but there’s more coherent and cohesive talent here — and a far higher ceiling — than I acknowledged before the season. I still have concerns about quality depth, but a rotation comprised of those perimeter guys, playing as they are — even with Jalen Green out for a while after aggravating the hamstring injury that cost him the start of the season — plus a quality center duo of efficiency monster Mark Williams and Nick Richards, is equipped to compete night-to-night.
Given the wins already in the bank (we should note the current five-game streak has come against some dregs) and everyone below them in the standings — theoretically outside of the Clippers, whom the Suns just beat by double digits twice in three days — either actively abandoning ambitions for the season or on a collision with reality, a reasonably healthy version of this team should post a win total in the low 40s and, at worst, bring Play-In basketball back to the Valley.
Portland Trail Blazers
Current record: 6-6 (9th in the West)
My preseason call: UNDER 35.5 wins
What I expected: “I’m not entirely sure what this team is actually trying to be. As best I can tell, the organization, recognizing this team is too good to tank but not good enough to try to contend, is content with one more developmental season.
In the East, the Blazers would be a fringe playoff team. In the West, they’re a frisky upstart that probably approaches 35 wins, but ultimately falls a bit short.”
What’s weird: How about finding your head coach was (allegedly) honey-potting4 rich marks at mob-run poker games when he was arrested by the Feds the day after your opening night loss?
Successfully hidden Lost in the efforts of the NBA and its media and gambling partners to keep things movin’ in the wake of the arrests is just how crazy this must be for these guys. One game into a new season, YOUR HEAD COACH IS ARRESTED BY THE FEDS FOR HIS ROLE IN FIXED, MOBBED-UP POKER GAMES. And you’ve gotta keep playing. Cool.
Any team would have been forgiven for wobbling a little bit. I’m not talking about totally collapsing, just needing a week or two to find their bearings. That these guys responded to that batshit situation with wins in five of their next eight, including over the Warriors, Lakers, Nuggets, and then-undefeated Thunder? Fucking incredible.
Looking ahead: I fear the adrenaline may be dying down. After beating the Thunder to go to 5-3, the Blazers headed to Florida, where they dropped a pair of close games to the Heat and Magic. They’ve since won a get-better game against the Pelicans and gotten blasted by the Rockets. A brutal upcoming schedule doesn’t do them any favors.
Next up, they’ve got the Mavs, yes, but after that, they have the Suns and Bulls at home, back to back. Then, they hit the road again to face the Warriors, Thunder, and Bucks. Then it’s home for the Spurs and Thunder, before another long road trip, this time through Toronto, Cleveland, Detroit, and Memphis. All in three weeks. Holy shit.
I was clearly wrong about this team coming into the season — and that assumed no coaching upheaval. To the immense credit of Tiago Splitter, the rest of the coaching staff, and the players, this team is together and game. But a stretch like the one upcoming can derail a season. I don’t fear that for this team, but there may be some bumps. Even so, once the dust settles and the schedule lets up, this will still be a tough, talented, 40-42-win team.
Sacramento Kings
Current record: 3-10 (13th in the West)
My preseason call: UNDER 35.5 wins
What I expected: “Nothing about the Kings suggests this is anything more than a Play-In team. If we’re being honest, in this Western Conference… they’re probably not even that. A Sabonis deal ushering in the latest rebuild feels more likely than 36+ wins.”
What’s weird: A lot, which I suppose in the context of this organization is… nothing?
This team came into the season weird and only loosely coherent. Three weeks and a brief Russaissance later, on the heels of double-figure losses to the Thunder, Wolves, Nuggets, Hawks, and Wolves (again), all by 14+ points, the Kings are tied with the Mavericks, a half-game ahead of the Pelicans in the Western Conference cellar. More than that, they are, yet again, existentially adrift.
The Kings’ brand-name top-six — Domantas Sabonis, DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Russell Westbrook, Dennis Schröder, and Malik Monk — sounds superficially like the engine of a strong offense. It is not. The Kings currently rank 25th in the NBA in offensive rating and dead last on the offensive glass (20.6% ORB rate).
Sadly, the calling card in Sacramento is, indeed, the offense. The numbers on D are pretty rough. Opponents are shooting 75.1% from within three feet of the rim. Only the Nets and Pelicans are allowing a higher effective field goal percentage. Overall, only the Nets, Pelicans, and Wizards have a worse defensive rating — and only those three and the Pacers have a worse net rating than the Kings’ -11.1.
Gnarly as all of that is, it somehow undersells the sadness of the scene.
Looking ahead: It’s time. Less than three years removed from the franchise’s best regular season record since Doug Christie, Mike Bibby, Chris Webber, Kenny Thomas, and Cuttino Mobley took the floor in Dwight Howard’s rookie year of 2004-05, it’s time for yet another overhaul in Sacto.
The good and bad news is that everything can go. With all due respect to Keegan Murray, there are no young building blocks here. Only one player under 25, rookie Nique Clifford, is playing at least 12 minutes per game. With Murray out until at least Thanksgiving after thumb surgery, only two others under age 27, Precious Achiuwa and Keon Ellis, are getting 12+ minutes per game. Not one of them is averaging over 7.5 points per game.
What started with De’Aaron Fox should extend to any of the veterans who draw any interest ahead of the deadline. The player of greatest consequence is Sabonis, who’s 29, supremely talented offensively, an excellent rebounder, but any of LaVine, DeRozan, Monk, Russ, shit, even Murray, should be in play. Not for Anthony Davis5.
San Antonio Spurs
Current record: 8-4 (5th in the West)
My preseason call: OVER 44.5 wins
What I expected: “As I see it, Wemby and exclusively replacement-level dudes would be good for 33-35 wins. Wemby, Fox, and a bunch of no-VORP All-Stars? At least .500. Harper, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan, Harrison Barnes, and Luke Kornet is better than that.
Full-blown contention is probably at least a year away, but the Spurs will be dangerous throughout the season, and finish closer to 50 wins than 40.”
What’s weird: De’Aaron Fox’s return in San Antonio is a much bigger deal than it’s being treated as. In his own way, Fox is one of the NBA’s most irreplicable stars. There just aren’t many stars with his combination of intelligence, playmaking, shot-making, and game-changing speed. Sure, he can’t shoot 3s. Even so, this guy is a force.
As with Julius Randle, most of Fox’s career has played out on unstable footing. After his third and fourth seasons, as he’d developed into a 23-point, 7-assist guy, the Kings drafted two point guards in the top-12: Tyrese Haliburton at #12 in 2020, and Davion Mitchell at #9 in 2021.
Though they did choose Fox when they traded Haliburton, public opinion was divided. And fair enough. Haliburton developed into a genuine superstar and led the Pacers to the doorstep of a title. But, for any gripes one might have, in the wake of that deal, Fox became an All-NBA player himself and teamed with Sabonis to power an all-time offense and the best Kings teams in two decades.
And yet, as things got stale in Sacramento and the Kings looked to shake things up, they saw more value in turning Fox — averaging 25/5/6, with 1.5 steals, with 47% shooting at the time — into draft picks and Zach LaVine, than resetting around him.
Last week, again, I see that “De’Aaron Fox’s fit on this team is a top curiosity.” Maybe I’m being pedantic here, but fit here is anything but a curiosity. Curious about how he comes back after weeks away with a hamstring issue? Sure. But his fit?
Fox is a bona fide star who’s less than seven months older than Shai Gilgeous Alexander, whose strengths pair gloriously with Victor Wembanyama’s, and whose biggest weakness will be mitigated by a slew of solid, if not “knock-down” shooters. Outside of Vic, he’s the dude you fit others around.
For as good as the start to the season was without him, assuming reasonable health going forward, I see no reason this team can’t reach a new level and top 50 wins.
Utah Jazz
Current record: 4-8 (10th in the West)
My preseason call: UNDER 18.5 wins
What I expected: “18-64 (or worse) is bad. Really bad. This team’s going to be, probably, really bad. I won’t be floored if the Jazz win 19-20 games, but, more likely, a win every five games will be too much for this group.”
What’s weird: What the hell do the Ainges have to do??
This is the fourth season running, since trading away Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert in the 2022 offseason, that the Jazz have tipped off a season ostensibly looking to bottom out and jumpstart a rebuild with a top-of-the-draft superstar. It’s already looking like the third of those in which the Jazz win themselves out of prime lottery position.
In 2022-23, under new coach Will Hardy, thanks to the efforts of Lauri Markkanen and Collin Sexton, both of whom arrived from Cleveland in the Mitchell trade, rookie Walker Kessler (acquired in the Rudy Gobert trade), and holdovers Jordan Clarkson and Mike Conley, the Jazz won their first three and 10 of their first 13. By the time they “righted the ship,” they were out of the Wembanyama sweepstakes. Their 37-45 record was only good for the #9 overall pick.
Things got off on the right foot the following season, as the Jazz dutifully dropped 16 of their first 23 games. Then, though, they ripped off an inexplicable 15-4 run, tanking their lottery odds and landing them the #10 overall pick.
They seemed to nail the formula last season, dropping their first six and 36 of their first 46 en route to a league-worst 17-65 record. This time, they whiffed in the lottery, landing at #5 overall, but landed a consensus top-three talent in Ace Bailey, successfully called his bluff about not wanting to play in Utah, and saw some encouraging signs in the preseason.
It would be disingenuous to blame only professional pride and the lottery gods for the Jazz’s stalled state. The lottery picks they have received over the last three years, they’ve largely used to staggeringly little effect.
In 2022-23, they selected Taylor Hendricks #9 overall. He’s taken the floor 51 times in two-plus seasons, to little effect. Fortunately, seven picks later, with part of the Gobert haul, they nabbed Keyonte George, who is blossoming into a star (21.3 points and 7.1 assists per game) and only just celebrated his 22nd birthday.
The following year, they used the 10th pick on Colorado’s Cody Williams — brother of OKC All-Star Jalen — who’s thus far played 55 career games, at sub-replacement level, with -1.2 Win Shares. Of the members of the draft class who’ve actually taken the floor, the only other player with a WS tally south of -0.5 is Isaiah Collier… whom the Jazz selected #29 overall.
In the earliest of days, as his classmates flashed their precociousness, Bailey looked out of his depth. Through nine games, he was playing under 20 minutes per game and averaging about six points, on 41/32 FG/3-point shooting. In his last two, he’s looked like a different player, notching his first two 20-point games, hitting eight of 15 triple tries and 15 of 26 overall. I don’t have a strong opinion on Bailey’s ceiling, but all the elements of an excellent NBA scorer are there.
Looking ahead: I get the game. Building a legitimate winner in the NBA is predicated on procuring the services of singular talents. Wherever you are, this is a difficult ask. It is notably tough in Utah, where superstars simply do not go of their own volition. The name of the game is losing and gambling until you luck into a Wemby.
In a perverse way, these first-round whiffs are serving the Jazz by facilitating more bites at the “contractually beholden superstar” cherry. Coming away from the last three drafts with, say, Cason Wallace (selected immediately after Hendricks), Matas Buzelis (the pick after Williams), and Cedric Coward (#9 this year) would have the Jazz further from where they want to be.
Of course, had they not flailed repeatedly in the first round, their still-largely-unrealized haul from the summer of 2022 would have the Jazz poised to build a self-sustaining OKC-esque powerhouse over the next four drafts:
2026: The best of their own, Minnesota’s, or Cleveland’s first-round pick
2027: Three firsts: their own, Minnesota’s, and Cleveland’s, both unprotected
2028: Swap with Cleveland
2029: Three more: their own, Cleveland’s (unprotected), and Minny’s (top-5 protected)
Alas, things in Salt Lake City are as they’ve been in recent years. This might have been a Portland-esque upstart built around the top-35 player most likely to want to stick around, with a trove of potentially premium assets tied to a pair of possibly vulnerable (over the next three years) contenders. Instead, the Jazz, once again, are aiming to plumb the standings.
Thanks to some characteristically misplaced professional pride — a 2-2 start that could easily have been 4-0 — while a truly terrible quartet immediately put down roots in the NBA’s cellar, at least a half-dozen other teams6 whose disappointing starts could precipitate “business decisions,” the Jazz, now a tenth-worst 4-8, may once again miss out on the top talents in what I’m given to believe is a strong draft.
On the bright side for the Ainge family, this latest go-round on the treadmill of sub-mediocrity green-lights yet another star-for-future-assets gambit. It’s good to have hobbies.
What’s Come Before…
It turns out that writing over 50,000 NBA-related (mostly) words over a couple of months as not one’s primary occupation takes it out of you. With that in, subscribe and check out the previews, check-ins, and asides that preceded this:
Re-Reading Between the Lines, Western Conference: Early Returns — Part 1
Re-Reading Between the Lines, Eastern Conference: Early Returns
Reading Between the Lines - 2025-26 NBA Northwest Division Preview
Reading Between the Lines - 2025-26 NBA Pacific Division Preview
Reading Between the Lines - 2025-26 NBA Southwest Division Preview
Reading Between the Lines - 2025-26 NBA Atlantic Division Preview
Reading Between the Lines - 2025-26 NBA Central Division Preview
Reading Between the Lines - 2025-26 NBA Southeast Division Preview
The Magic’s Moment (from July)
Which I will absolutely frame as astute, sober skepticism if they flame out.
Just A Guy.
I caught it fairly early on.
With fame, not sex.
None of these made any sense to me with the exceptions of Rob Mahoney’s Raptors proposal, which makes all the sense.
By my estimation, the Hornets, Mavs, Clippers, Kings, Grizzlies, and Celtics.