Re-Reading Between the Lines, Western Conference: Early Returns — Part 1
A week ago, I checked in on the early action in the NBA’s Eastern Conference, for confirmation and recalibration of my preseason expectations. Now it’s time to head West, where the picture is rosier in terms of superstar availability and overall quality — but only marginally clearer.
The top tier in what was vaunted as a “bloodbath” or a “gauntlet” isn’t altogether shocking, though a couple of notable absences find themselves grappling in a muddled middle that could extend as far down the standings as #12.
Again, I know that three weeks isn’t much — of course, as the analytics gurus will point out, it is more than two — but it’s long enough for yet more “small sample” caveats to better resemble the trends, breakouts, and red flags that will ultimately define this as-yet wide-open race as it ramps up throughout the season.
Now, as I went along, this one got away from me a little bit. In the interest of drawing something vaguely resembling a line in the sand on length and getting this published in a semi-timely manner, I’ve broken the West check-in into two parts, the second of which comes tomorrow.
So, let’s re-wander through half of the West, shall we?
Dallas Mavericks
Current record: 3-8 (14th in the West)
My preseason call: OVER 41.5 wins
What I expected: “With just Davis healthy and Flagg looking like an increasingly comfortable version of what we’ve seen in the preseason, this is a good team, with the potential to be something more — not a contender, but a 45-48-win surprise 5-seed, perhaps.
If Kyrie is able to return, looking like himself, sometime this season, things could get interesting. Regardless, expectations for this team will be sky-high next year.”
What’s weird: That Klay Thompson (41% on 7.6 attempts per game over his career), D’Angelo Russell (36.4% on 6.9), P.J. Washington (38.1% last year, 35.6% career), and Cooper Flagg are shooting under 27% from beyond. It’s just that simple.
Looking ahead: I want to stand by the upbeat stuff I wrote prior to the season — the rationale, at least, but I dunno…
As good as he already is and will be, expecting Cooper Flagg to slot in as a top-two guy on a competitive team before his nineteenth birthday was optimistic. He’ll find his bearings, probably sooner rather than later, and improve his scoring (currently 15 per game), shooting (42/26 FG/3-point), and assist (3.1) numbers, but this is an adjustment year.
For years, in the face of sizable opposition, I’ve chaired the “C’mon, guys, D’Angelo Russell isn’t actually bad!” committee. I’m not ready to abandon my post completely, but I am taking a sabbatical. D-Lo’s 4.9-to-1.9 assist/turnover ratio isn’t doing enough to offset career-low marks from the field (37.3%), 3-point range (27.8%), and the free throw line (70.7%, vs. 79.5% career) or justify his highest usage rate (26.9%) since 2020-21.
It breaks my heart to say it, but Klay, shooting just 26.7% on 6 triple tries per game, isn’t just on the back nine of his career. He looks like he’s on the 18th fairway.
Dereck Lively II has missed five straight games with a left knee contusion, while Anthony Davis is sidelined (two games and counting) with a left calf strain, which, happily, doesn’t sound like it’s serious.
On the plus side, Max Christie, who doesn’t turn 23 until February, averaging 13.1 points while making 45% of his 3s, with a career-best assist rate, looks like a viable piece.
Barring a truly magical switch-flip, “trying to compete” for some “appropriate” stretch before shutting things down and returning next season with a spine of Flagg, AD, Kyrie, a top-6-pick, and a solid supporting cast seems like the play — with someone else at the controls.
Denver Nuggets
Current record: 7-2 (3rd in the West)
My preseason call: OVER 53.5 wins
What I expected: “OKC remains monstrous, but these guys are loaded and can give the Thunder all they want. With reasonable injury luck, it’s tough not to see this team winning 54+ games.”
What’s weird: That the Nuggets have put together a historically great offense, with a top-three offensive rating (122.7), with Cam Johnson (23.5% on 3.8 attempts per game) and Christian Braun (17.4% on 2.6) hitting on about a fifth of their 3s.
Meanwhile, Joker is, obviously, still Joker. He’s scoring four fewer points per game (25.2, down from 29.6), but is having his best season from the field (73.3% True Shooting), leading the league in both rebounds (13.0 per game) and assists (11.9), and swiping almost two steals per game. Add it all up and it’s good for a singularly outrageous .414 WS/48.
It seems like we say it weekly, but to date, we’ve legitimately never seen a better version of Nikola Jokić.
As far as the other two are concerned, I am still not. Braun made over 39% of his 3s over the last two seasons and is making 58.5% of his 2-pointers. He knows his role and will be fine.
So, too, I’m sure, will Johnson, though I appreciate he may take longer to find his stride in new surroundings and a new role. But he’s too smart and talented a player — especially the touch that made him a 39% 3-point shooter over his first seven years — to struggle too much longer.
Looking ahead: It’s wild that, nitpicking aside, this team has been everything one could have hoped for coming into the season, pairing that awesome offense with the league’s second-best defense for a +13.0 net rating (second in the NBA), with Jamal Murray (22.8 points per game) and Aaron Gordon (20.1, 5.4 rebounds, 46.3% from 3, 70.5% TS) playing the best ball of their careers, and feels just “in the mix.”
I’m still not sure how a team goes about doing all the things needed to beat OKC four times in seven games, but I still think the Nuggets are the team best equipped to do them.
Golden State Warriors
Current record: 6-5 (7th in the West)
My preseason call: UNDER 45.5 wins
What I expected: “If Steph and Butler are both healthy and clicking, Melton provides some relief at the point, Podziemski and Moody are ready for more substantial roles, and Kuminga plays well enough to boost his trade value (and paycheck after his inevitable move), the bones of 48-50-win team are in place. Unfortunately, I have too many concerns about the stars’ consistent availability and the lack of proven depth behind them to predict more than 45 wins in this Western Conference.”
What’s weird/Looking ahead: By record, the Warriors are roughly where we’d have expected at this point. By the numbers, they’re staring down a crisis. Ranking 19th on offense isn’t normal around here, though the league’s seventh-best D is picking some slack — overall, #12 in net rating (+2.2) feels about right?
There are some interesting wrinkles to how they’ve gotten here. Steph, of course, has been fantastic, pouring in 26.8 points per game and making 39% of a league-high 11.3 3-pointers per game. It’s worth mentioning, however, that he hasn’t played since November 4, and in his time on the floor, seems like he may be, I dunno, downshifting ahead of his 38th birthday (in March).
Despite playing the fewest minutes per game — as always, omitting the 2019-20, in which he only played five games — of his career (31.1), Steph is sporting his second-highest usage rate to date (33.4%) and his second-worst WS/48 (.153) since 2012-13. He’s also averaging nearly a rebound and 1.7 assists per game less than he did in 2024-25. Make no mistake, he’s still one of the sport’s ultimate game-changers. He’s just not Peak Steph anymore.
Fortunately for Steve Kerr, Jimmy Butler has been awesome. In 30.9 minutes per game, Butler has shot superbly (50/41/86), averaging 19 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game, with usage (22.6%), turnover (8.5%), and assist (23.6%) rates better than his career marks. The raw numbers don’t bowl you over, but Butler’s efficiency and reliability have been huge.
Jonathan Kuminga is also here, and has been alright, averaging 15.1 points (on 47/33/78 shooting), 7.2 rebounds, and 3.0 assists in 29.5 minutes per game. But rather than helping absorb non-Steph minutes, Kuminga’s playing more than 90% of his minutes (when Steph’s been available) alongside Curry. Interestingly, the pair’s +12 in 222 minutes together is, by a margin, the worst among the Dubs’ top six two-player combos1:
I don’t know exactly how I thought his situation would play out, but all told, things have been fine. On the court, Kuminga’s been okay, with no rumblings of discontent. Even so, his play alongside Steph isn’t spectacular enough to justify offering no value outside of it. Assuming the priority remains maximizing Steph’s last top-level years, the Warriors are best served moving on.
Mind you, it probably won’t matter much this season. Even with his team-high assist numbers (5.8 per game) and 45% 3-point shooting, Draymond at scale is a liability on offense. Brandin Podziemski and Moses Moody are fine, but hardly signals of serious intent. Al Horford is on the final fairway with Klay.
The Dubs have struggled for consistency, showing they can hang with quality opposition, with wins over the Lakers, Nuggets, and Clippers, but are also the only team to fall to the Pacers thus far, and fell to the Kings a few days ago. Now, the schedule that’s about to get savage, with six on the road, five of them in OKC, San Antonio (twice), Orlando, and Miami, with a home date against the Blazers immediately afterward.
There’s no harm in trying to catch lightning in a bottle. But what even is that here?
Houston Rockets
Current record: 6-3 (5th in the West)
My preseason call: UNDER 52.5
What I expected: “I feel like this team could be a pretty decent version of itself and fall a decent bit short of 53 wins. The number that I keep falling on is 47.”
What’s weird: That only one of the 11 members of this roster who’ve attempted 1.0 3-pointer per game is shooting worse than 37.2% from deep: Amen Thompson (22.7%).
Tari Eason (51.2%) is shooting 15% above his career-best mark from deep. Josh Okogie is making 50% of his triples; in seven NBA seasons before this one, he’s only topped 34% from 3 once (34.5% last year) and fallen short of 30% five times. Just below them are Reed Sheppard (47.9%), Kevin Durant (41.2%), and Jabari Smith Jr. (37.2). Fair enough. Meanwhile, Alperen Şengün, who’s been excellent, is hitting 39.3% — in four seasons before this one, he’s made just over 27% of his 3s and twice fallen short of 25%.
On the one hand, it’s a testament to the depth of quality on this roster. However, based on historical evidence, especially in the absence of Fred VanVleet, it’s also unsustainable.
Looking ahead: As some of their outside shooting (42.8% as a team is nuts) inevitably regresses and the competition ramps up, other areas in which Houston has thrived will take on added significance.
The Rockets remain the real deal on D, ranking ninth in defensive rating following a fourth-place finish a year ago. The imminent return of Dorian Finney-Smith will only help there. They’ve also dominated on the offensive glass, with a league-leading 37.4% offensive rebound rate. And, at the free throw line, they’re third in attempts per game and FT/FGA, while they’re allowing the fourth-fewest free throws per game, with a league-low .18 FT/FGA allowed.
And yet, I’m still not sure how actually good this team is. Their two losses to open the season came by a combined five points to OKC (in double OT) and the Pistons. That they buckled down and put the wood to the Nets, Raptors, Celtics, Mavs, and Grizz by an average of nearly 20 points is impressive. It’s also largely uninstructive in light of a third loss in three against credible competition, 121-110 in San Antonio.2
Obviously, the Rockets are good, but as of now, I’m not convinced they survive a series against any of the West’s current top four (Thunder, Lakers, Nuggets, Spurs).
Los Angeles Clippers
Current record: 3-7 (13th in the West)
My preseason call: OVER 48.5 wins
What I expected: ”If Kawhi and Zubac stay healthy for the majority of the season and the rest of the roster isn’t ravaged by injuries (no one beyond those two is totally irreplaceable, but a major accumulation would be rough), it’s tough to see this squad losing more than 40% of its games.”
What’s weird: How shallow the depth has looked. Kawhi Leonard looked great out of the gate, averaging 24.3 points (with 50/40/96 shooting), 5.7 rebounds, and 2.5 steals, but hasn’t played since the November 3 loss to the Heat. James Harden, meanwhile, is hitting 39.3% of 9.3 triple tries per game, en route to 23.4 points, and adding 5.2 rebounds and 8.6 assists per game.
Outside of their main duo, there’s been precious little impact play. Summertime addition John Collins (12.9 and 5, with 39.3% 3-point shooting), along with Derrick Jones Jr. (10.8 points, 39.5% from 3) and Kris Dunn (40.9% from 3, 1.7 steals per), have been okay, but there’s not a game-changer among them. And this is where the positivity starts drying up.
Ivica Zubac’s 14.9 and 10.9 are efficient, but also off from last year’s 16.8 and 12.6. And all of the veterans who had this roster looking like one of the NBA’s deepest and most dangerous have, at best, underwhelmed:
Bradley Beal has missed four games, only played about 21 minutes in the six he has played, averaging 8.2 points, with a cumulative -23 +/-. Meanwhile, the man he replaced, Norman Powell, is averaging 24.5 per game for Miami, and scored 21 in a one-point win over the Clippers a week ago.
After missing four games early, Bogdan Bogdanović looked relatively alright (compared to this lot) in losses against OKC and Phoenix — but only to the tune of 23 combined points — and has since missed two more games.
Nicolas Batum and Chris Paul have been awful, combining for 5.2 points and 4.2 assists per game, with about 26% shooting.
Brook Lopez has been fine, I suppose. Place significant stock in the needle-moving potential of a 37-year-old backup stretch five at your own peril.
Looking ahead: I overweighted brand recognition in assessing the Clips heading into the season. Plain and simple.
Now, a couple of weeks into the games that count, I cannot find any of the optimism with which I previewed this team. They fumbled away what should have been a fantastic start, first with a blowout loss in Utah on opening night, then with an astoundingly impotent showing in San Francisco against the Warriors. Even their brief foray over .500 required a buzzer-beater against the Pelicans. The Pelicans.
They’ve since dropped a pair at home, by one point to the Heat, then by 19 to the Thunder. They then proceeded to drop a home-and-home to Phoenix, both by double digits, before dropping another tight one in Inglewood to the Hawks.
The Clips now sit 13th in the West, a lone game above the smoldering husk of the Pelicans. They’re already two games back of Portland for ninth in the conference, and 4.5 back of the Lakers in the Pacific. And now things get tough. Tomorrow night they host the red-hot Nuggets, before heading out for seven straight away games, the last two of which are against the Cavs and Lakers. I’m not yet ready to declare this season on the brink, but at this point it’s tough to envision anything better than an extended stay in the Play-In mire.
Los Angeles Lakers
Current record: 8-3 (4th in the West)
My preseason call: OVER 47.5 wins
What I expected: “As currently constructed, even with LeBron, this team probably isn’t a top-tier contender. That said, if LeBron returns soon and sustainably, at a level close to full strength, assuming decent health for the rest of the roster, this team should be quite good (to the tune of 50+ wins) and have ample time to properly find its bearings ahead of the stretch run.”
What’s weird: Just how coherent all this has been, how quickly it got this way, and, frankly, just how fun it’s all been.
If one were so inclined, one could imply some obvious subtext here. Please imply responsibly.
It is not my contention that the Lakers are somehow better for LeBron’s absence. They are not. The truth, however, is that Luka Dončić, at this point in the two men’s respective careers, is better equipped, tempered, and practiced for elevating a high-end ragtag group like the group he’s got right now.
LeBron’s entire career is defined by elevating rosters to levels they’d otherwise never have seen. But he’s also spent the past decade-plus orchestrating and optimizing the rosters around him. Though Luka certainly had talented teammates throughout his time in Dallas, his entire mandate as a Maverick was to elevate more modest rosters to lesser, but no less impressive heights. And the one time they got him a genuine superstar running mate, they made the damn Finals. Plus, he’s fourteen years younger. However you slice it, at this stage in the game, Luka’s better suited for this.
As for the fun? We’ve talked about that, too. It’s not just that he averages 37, 9, 9, and 1.7 steals per game3, but he speaks the language of the Laker faithful — sometimes silly…
… frequently spectacular…
… and utterly savage:
He is “a captivating hybrid of Magic and Kobe… LeBron strikes me as what it would have been like if Kareem tried to be Magic.”
Oh, yeah! And did you know that Austin Reaves is apparently a 30 and 9 dude capable of flirting with 50-point triple-doubles??
Looking ahead: Even with LeBron out, Luka, Reaves, Deandre Ayton, Rui Hachimura (52.4% from 3), Marcus Smart (2.3 steals per game), and Pasadena’s own Jake LaRavia is apparently a 50-win team. In fact, 8-3 works out to roughly 59 wins over 82 games. As things currently stand, despite a middle of the road net rating (+1.6; 15th in the NBA), they’ve grabbed a two-game lead atop the Pacific Division over the 6-3 Warriors and Suns, and a four-and-a-half-game advantage over the preseason division favorites, the Clippers. It’s into this ecosystem that LeBron will return in (presumably) the next couple of weeks.
In a world where the Thunder and Nikola Jokić exist and are at full strength, I remain hesitant to declare these Lakers an inner-circle contender. That said, with these versions of Luka and Reaves, and LeBron lying in wait, ready to shift into overdrive rather than having to live there, the Lakers will be in every game they play.
Memphis Grizzlies
Current record: 4-7 (10th in the West)
My preseason call: OVER 40.5 wins
What I expected: “… Wherever you stand on Ja Morant, the man is effectively untradable. This isn’t to say that he can’t or won’t ever be traded. I personally (and not terribly boldly) see him as more likely to get dealt than once again lead the Grizz to a top-four seed in the West. What’s fascinating is how the motivations to engage in a deal, for both the Grizzlies and prospective trade partners, reside only at the extremes.… [the Grizz] might as well try to make the most of this season… this team could be frisky. Like, 43-44 wins frisky.”
What’s weird: From that same preview:
“Seeing what we have from Morant in the past, I won’t say that he can’t still lead a team, shit, this team, to 50 wins. But these days, the necessary conditions for it feel priced-to-perfection. And even if they come to pass in 2025-26, it’s tough to see them as sustainable. In light of all injuries and shitstorms, the pummeling at the hands of the Thunder felt like the end of something far more than it did a future footnote in a memoir of glory.
Even if Ja shakes his penchant for controversy, unless he can recapture both his peak (or something close) athleticism, aggressiveness, and shooting touch, and actually stay on the floor, his deal (a straight $42 million per, no options, through 2027-28) is one his own team might be interested in escaping. The problem, of course, is that, even if GM Zach Kleiman wants to move on, he’ll need a counterparty who sees Ja as a sufficiently enticing bet for about 25% of the cap to part with superstar-level value.”
Looking ahead:
That’s it for the first leg of our look around the West. Tune in tomorrow for looks at how things are shaking out for Spurs, Kings, Blazers, and the rest of the conference!
Note #s 7 and 8 as well.
They’ve since broken that seal with a 122-115 win in Milwaukee.
What an absurd way to start a sentence.