Reading Between the Lines - 2025-26 NBA Pacific Division Preview
Unlike in years past, the 2025-26 ReadingBetween the Lines NBA previews were meant to be delivered in six installments. Three days ago, I kicked off the series with a look ahead to the season for the teams in the Northwest Division.
Two days ago, I jumped back into the fray, hoping to knock out this Pacific Division preview. That leap landed me squarely in a rabbit hole, examining the good, bad, and inexplicable of the Suns’ last decade’s worth of pivots and personnel gambits.
Now it’s back to the task at hand: digging into the highest profile and most successful teams from (at least) the NBA’s past quarter century. And the Clippers and Kings1.
Golden State Warriors
In 2024-25… 48-34 (#7 in the West); Lost to Minnesota 4-1 in the conference semis
2025-26 Win Total O/U (on October 8): 45.5
As the season gets rolling, we’ll hear a lot about LeBron James’s impending 41st birthday on December 30. About eleven weeks later, Stephen Curry will celebrate his 38th.
Now 16 years in, Steph, like LeBron, remains elite. He remains a singular offensive engine. In 2024-25, he averaged 24.5 points, 6 assists, made roughly 40% of his 3-pointers and a league-high 93.3% of his free throws, en route to 7.9 Win Shares. He was selected to his eleventh All-Star team, his eleventh All-NBA Team2, and earned his eleventh top-eleven finish in MVP voting.
At the same time, elements of his ‘24-’25 showing suggest, I dunno, mortality? For instance — note that all of this omits the 2019-20 season, in which he played just five games — Steph’s 44.8% field goal percentage was the second lowest of his career. Ditto his 39.7% from 3. For a second straight year (and second time in his career), he attempted fewer than 10% of his shots (8.3%, vs. 14.8% career) at the rim. For a third straight season, he attempted more than 17% of his shots from 3-10 feet out (vs. 11.8% career). His Win Shares/48 (.168), while still excellent, was his second-lowest since 2011-12.
Entering his 17th NBA season, he’s going to need someone to meaningfully shoulder some of his responsibility. Though he’s still a top-tier defender, emotional leader, and co-face of the franchise, it’s not Draymond Green, who turns 36 during the season and is a straight-up liability on offense at this stage.
It could well be Jimmy Butler, who fit in nicely after his midseason arrival from Miami. In 30 games as a Warrior, he averaged 17.9, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.0 assists, with an awesome 4.9 Win Shares. For as well as he played, though, his shooting swan-dived post-trade, both overall (from 54% to 47.6%) and from beyond the arc (36.1% to 27.9%). Also, he’s missed at least 15 regular season games in all but one season since 2013-143, and himself just turned 36.
Even if Steve Kerr does get healthy, up-to-par seasons from Steph and Jimmy, there’s gotta be help from somewhere. But where??
Buddy Hield is good for a hot shooting night or two, every week or two, not much more. This version of Al Horford is a garnish, rather than an actual ingredient of a quality team. De’Anthony Melton, who played just six games after arriving via trade last December, will feel like a new acquisition and should fit in nicely in a “keep the train on the tracks for 2-3 5-6-minute stints per game” role.
Ideally, the support comes from one of the youngsters. Brandin Podziemski is game and talented, but not enough on his own. Moses Moody — whose left calf strain isn’t expected to linger into the regular season — is still only 23, a decent shooter (37.4% from 3 last year; 36.7% for his career), and a plus defender. He’s also never played more than 22.2 minutes per game or, frankly, ever consistently been a quality NBA player. I’m not saying he can’t break out as a two-way star in his fifth season. I’d just at least like to see proof of concept at scale.
Then there’s Jonathan Kuminga.
There was tension between Kuminga and Kerr well before the newly-23-year-old’s protracted restricted free agency. After an acrimonious summer, which I was certain would end with him on another team, Kuminga signed a two-year, $48.5 million extension on September 30.
Strong and phenomenally athletic, Kuminga sees himself as an ascendant star. Following the 2023-24 season, he was. Last season, however, while his usage jumped to 27.4%, his shooting regressed — from 52.4% to 45.4% overall, and from an already subpar 32.1% to 30.5% on 3-pointers. Amid questions about his effort and attitude, he lost his starting job in December and was omitted from the active roster for the 31 consecutive games between January 5 and March 10.
He returned to the fold with an underwhelming 15-game run to end the regular season and 50 total minutes (4 Inactive/DNPs) in a 7-game opening-round series against the Rockets. He showed out a bit in the second round, with 24.3 points per game, on 55.4%/38.9% shooting in his final four games. Unfortunately, those games comprised a season-ending four-game losing streak in a five-game series loss to the Wolves.
Despite some positive noises this preseason, there’s still palpable frustration, and no clear path to a prominent role for Kuminga. Under the terms of his extension, he can be traded starting January 15. Look for that to happen between then and the February 6 trade deadline.
In a nutshell: The Warriors’ only remaining timeline is Steph’s final chapter as a top-tier superstar. And there should be (should ever have been?) no other way. His genius warrants no less.
If Steph and Butler are both healthy and clicking, Melton provides some relief at the point, Podziemski and Moody are ready for more substantial roles, and Kuminga plays well enough to boost his trade value (and paycheck after his inevitable move), the bones of 48-50-win team are in place. Unfortunately, I have too many concerns about the stars’ consistent availability and the lack of proven depth behind them to predict more than 45 wins in this Western Conference.
Los Angeles Clippers
In 2024-25… 48-34 (#7 in the West); Lost to Nuggets 4-3 in the the first round
2025-26 Win Total O/U (on October 8): 48.5
As I did with each of the next two teams, I recently dug into the Clippers’ affairs. That the Lakers and Suns are at least identifiable as basketball teams in their respective pieces, one would be forgiven for coming away from that piece with the impression that these “Clippers” are simply canvass for Rich Guy Shit.
In all seriousness, it’s impossible at this point to meaningfully discuss this team without some indication of what to expect from the NBA’s investigation into alleged salary cap circumvention involving the organization — namely owner Steve Ballmer and chairman Dennis Wong — superstar forward Kawhi Leonard, and a supposed sustainability-focused (but ultimately fraudulent) financial services firm, Aspiration, Inc.
Without rehashing everything — the link is right there — should the NBA conclude that the franchise ran afoul of league rules in order to circumvent the cap, the fallout could be seismic, with penalties including:
Fines (inconsequential to any of the key players)
Suspensions (up to a year) for any executives
Voiding Kawhi’s contract and prohibiting him from re-signing with the Clippers
Absent a “preponderance of the evidence” suggesting his ignorance of the violation, a requirement that return any money he received as a result of the arrangement
“The direct forfeiture of draft picks.”4
Suffice it to say, if the hammer really drops and the Clips are left with no Kawhi and even less usable draft capital (either for trades or to select actual players), then this team is fucked. Simple as that.
Proceeding on the assumption the Clippers avoid punishment, for reasons either legitimate (a true smoking gun is hard to come by in this type of case) or cynical (Adam Silver really doesn’t want to smack his wealthiest boss — the first one he directly welcomed into the league after laying the wood to the franchise’s last owner — who operates in his largest media market), the short-term picture here is reasonably clear.
The Clippers can part ways with every single member of the current roster before the 2027-28 season except for one: Ivica Zubac5, who’ll still be just 30 years-old and an astounding bargain at just under $21 million. In the meantime, they’ve assembled a deep, diverse, and coherent collection of mid-to-late-career veterans around Kawhi (who turned 34 in June):
Chris Paul (turned 40 in May)
Brook Lopez (turned 37 in May)
Nicolas Batum (turns 37 in December)
James Harden (turned 36 in August)
Bogdan Bogdanović (turned 33 in August)
Bradley Beal (turned 32 in June)
In addition, the squad features Zubac, Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones, Jr., and John Collins6.
This is a two-year sprint for a title before a clean-slate rebuild. Plain and simple.
In a nutshell: I hate how much I like this team. While I don’t think they’ll actually win the title or even reach the Finals, this roster goes a legit ten-deep with dudes who know how to win NBA games. Sure, they’re old, and some are prone to injury, but there sure are a lot of them!
If Kawhi and Zubac stay healthy for the majority of the season and the rest of the roster isn’t ravaged by injuries (no one beyond those two is totally irreplaceable, but a major accumulation would be rough), it’s tough to see this squad losing more than 40% of its games.
Los Angeles Lakers
In 2024-25… 50-32 (#3 in the West); Lost to Minnesota 4-1 in the first round
2025-26 Win Total O/U (on October 8): 47.5
In light of two recent dives into the state of affairs in Lakerland, I’ll spare you more big-picture ramblings. Since those pieces went up, we’ve learned that LeBron, already managing his physical workload ahead of Year 23, is suffering from sciatica on his right side. According to reporting from The Athletic on October 9, the condition will cost LeBron the entirety of preseason and at least the Lakers’ first five regular season outings, the fifth of which is a road game in Minneapolis — though a November 1 return in Memphis is likely optimistic.
The hope is that the coming weeks are a temporary peek into the Lakers’ future and not a premature and unceremonious superstar hand-off. In the short run, Austin Reaves, thankfully, is “good” after taking a knee to his lower leg on Sunday night. He and this guy:
… leading a supporting cast of Rui Hachmura, Deandre Ayton (who, not that long ago, turned in an all-time season and, for any warts, remains a walking double-double and theoretically capable defender), Gabe Vincent, Jake LaRavia, Jarred Vanderbilt, Maxi Kleber, Marcus Smart, Dalton Knecht, and (sigh) Jaxson Hayes should be competitive7 and capable of grinding out a respectable record.
In a nutshell: As currently constructed, even with LeBron, this team probably isn’t a top-tier contender. That said, if LeBron returns soon and sustainably, at a level close to full strength, assuming decent health for the rest of the roster, this team should be quite good (to the tune of 50+ wins) and have ample time to properly find its bearings ahead of the stretch run. Along the way, of course, we’ll likely revisit a familiar conversation…
This summer, the Lakers split their $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception to sign Ayton ($8.1M this year) and LaRavia ($6M), got second-round pick (#36 overall) Adou Thiero to accept a small discount, waived Shake Milton and Jordan Goodwin to accommodate Smart’s $5.1 million salary. Per Spotrac, they enter the season with $194.8 million in salary on the books, $1.1 million below the first apron.
As a result, while they’re hard-capped at $195.9 million, they have some flexibility in a trade, whether aggregating contracts — Rui ($18.3M), Vincent ($11.5M), Kleber ($11M), Hayes ($3.4M) are all expiring — or dealing one (but not both) of their 2031 or 2032 first-round picks, plus swaps in ‘26, ‘28, ‘30, and whichever of the ‘31–‘32 they don’t trade.
Of course, if LeBron’s issue lingers or recurs* and (especially, duh) Luka or Reaves goes down as well, things could get pretty ugly, pretty quickly.
* Assuming Rob Pelinka doesn’t unleash a biblical shitstorm of irony and passive aggression with an all-in move, with Luka in mind, as a result of LeBron’s injury.
Phoenix Suns
In 2024-25… 36-46; Missed playoffs
2025-26 Win Total O/U (on October 8): 31.5
In the interest of saving both of our time, I will simply redirect you to the aforementioned accidental exploration of this most recent era in Suns basketball. However, in the simultaneous interest of giving you something here…
In a nutshell: There are enough recognizable, young-to-prime-age names here that the Suns’ situation isn’t as aggressively bleak as it was 8-10 years ago. That said, this team is capped out, has only one true, top-end talent, and minimal means for upgrades. They’ll also be playing for a fourth head coach in four years, in a stacked Western Conference.
I really like Devin Booker a lot and Jalen Green, Royce O’Neale, and Dillon Brooks are fine, but against this backdrop, with a glaring hole at the point and minimal proven depth up front, the Suns need more to top 30 wins.
Sacramento Kings
In 2024-25… 40-42; Missed playoffs
2025-26 Win Total O/U (on October 8): 35.5
Only two NBA seasons have taken place since the Kings rode an irrepressible, beam-lighting offense — the most efficient in NBA history to that point, in fact — powered by two top-eleven MVP finishers (Domantas Sabonis was seventh; De’Aaron Fox was eleventh), to 48 wins and the #3 seed in the West. They’d have deservedly been off to the second round were it not for Steph dropping the first (and, for two weeks, only) Game 7 50-piece in NBA history.
A year later, that same core (Fox, Sabonis, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray, Harrison Barnes, head coach Mike Brown), this time mid-pack on offense and defense, notched 46 wins. Unfortunately, in a particularly savage Western Conference, that was only good enough for ninth place and a spot in the Play-In. In a win-or-else rematch at home, this time they ran the Warriors off the floor, 118-94. Unfortunately, three days later their season was over, as 35 from Fox and 23-14-7 from Sabonis weren’t enough to overcome 41% shooting and terrible second quarter in New Orleans.
Since that loss to the Pelicans, just about everything, from the top down, has changed. 2023 Executive of the Year Monte McNair is gone, replaced by a man who, eight years ago, dumped the Kings for the Knicks after just three months in their VP of Basketball Ops job, Scott Perry. Brown, Coach of the Year that same year, was shown the door just after Christmas, with the team at 13-18 and on a five-game losing streak. He was replaced on an interim basis (since made permanent) by former Kings player, color commentator8, assistant coach, and basketball diplomat9, Doug Christie.
To Christie’s credit, the team (with DeMar DeRozan replacing Barnes) improved, posting a 27-24 record under his guidance — especially impressive given the midseason trade of De’Aaron Fox (and his 25 points and 6 assists per game) to San Antonio, in exchange for Zach LaVine and draft picks — posted a positive net rating, and earning a second straight home Play-In date as the West’s #9 seed. Sadly, the season ended that night at Golden 1 Center, in a 120-106 defeat at the hands of the Kyrie-less, post-Luka Mavs.
Over the summer, Perry and the Kings proceeded to:
Trade one of the league’s better backup centers, Jonas Valančiūnas, to Denver, in exchange for Dario Šarić, who only saw the floor 16 times last season, last played more than 66 games in 2018-19, and has only sporadically been better than replacement level over his eight NBA seasons.
Sign the aggressively “meh” Drew Eubanks to replace Valančiūnas.
Not extend 25-year-old plus defender and 3-point shooter (43.3% last season; 42.9% for his three-year career) Keon Ellis; They picked up his $2.3 million team option), who will be an unrestricted free agent next summer, just so they could…
…. Sign 2025 FIBA EuroBasket winner and MVP, Dennis Schröder, for three years and $44.4 million.
Trade for #24 overall pick Nique Clifford and select 22-year-old 7-foot-1 French center Maxime Raynaud — who averaged 18-10 over his junior and senior seasons at Stanford — with the 42nd overall pick.
The draft stuff seems solid. The rest?
In a nutshell: The Kings are not bereft of talent. Sabonis is an offensive hub and elite rebounder. At 36 years of age, DeRozan remains a top-tier mid-range bucket-getter. LaVine is an outstanding scorer who, bizarrely to the point of frighteningly, made exactly 51.1% of his shots and 44.6% of his 3-pointers in both Chicago and Sacramento last season, en route to 23.3 points per game. Monk is about as good as it gets off the bench. Schröder isn’t as good as his summer exploits with the German national team, but he’s a capable veteran starter. Murray’s reputation oversells his on-court value, but he’s fine. Nique Clifford looks like a player:
And yet…
There’s nothing inspiring about this team. There’s talent here, sure, but no game-changer. Sabonis is great, but needs teammates who smart enough to play off him on offense and mask his defensive deficiencies to be at his best. DeMar’s last foray into the MVP discourse in 2021-22 a) began before Lonzo Ball’s left knee went kaput and b) is the recent highwater mark for an organization avant-garde in its pursuit of mediocrity. I continue to believe in Zach LaVine’s potential as a top-flight player. That’s very much a “me problem.”
Nothing about the Kings suggests this is anything more than a Play-In team. If we’re being honest, in this Western Conference — even before losing Murray for at least 10 regular season games to a UCL tear in his thumb — they’re probably not even that. A Sabonis deal ushering in the latest rebuild feels more likely than 36+ wins.
Is this hacky? Yes. Yes, it is.
His fourth Second Team nod.
2016-17, his last season in Chicago.
The precedent here is the Minnesota Timberwolves’ 2000 saga, in which the team secretly arranged for power forward Joe Smith to sign a pair of below-market one-years deals, with the promise of a bigger payday once they had his “Bird rights” and could exceed the salary cap to re-sign him. Minny was initially stripped of its next five first-rounders (2001-05), though two (2003, 2005) were reinstated on appeal.
Mike Fucking Muscala.
Forever a future superstar in my eyes.
November is road-heavy, but not too much of a gauntlet. Admittedly, this assumes, perhaps erroneously, a baseline level of defensive competence.
It genuinely pains me to say this given how I hated Doug Christie on those early 2000s teams, but I really enjoyed his work.
I’d completely forgotten about this!