Re-Reading Between the Lines, Eastern Conference: Early Returns
Back in mid-October, I kicked off the 2025-26 edition of Reading Between the Lines with a six-legged tour through the NBA’s divisions, starting in the Northwest, heading down the Pacific Coast — with a layover in the Valley of the Sun — and wrapping up the Western Conference in the Southwest, before heading East, through the Atlantic, Central, and the Southeast.
Now that the dust (and the word count) has settled, let’s see how those early reads are aging. Two weeks — especially with many teams waiting out returns of key contributors, some from serious injuries — is far from a season, but it’s enough time to clock vibe shifts, wobbly plans, upstart aspirations, and plans that are playing out according to, err, plan.
This time, we’ll start in the East1. The narrative all offseason about the conference centered around a trio of superstar Achilles injuries — to the Celtics’ Jayson Tatum, the reigning conference champion Pacers’ Tyrese Haliburton, and Damian Lillard, then of the Bucks, who’s since returned to Portland, where he spent the first dozen years of his NBA career — Giannis Antetokounmpo’s satisfaction (or lack thereof) in Milwaukee, and opportunities elsewhere to cash in on a power vacuum.
So, how’s it going?
Atlanta Hawks
Current record: 3-4 (9th in the East)
My preseason call: UNDER 46.5 wins
What I expected: “... a year ago, I said the Hawks’ 2024-25 season would bring ‘well under 36.5 wins.’ They won 40 games. This is a decent team, but there’s not enough talent, cohesion, or quality depth at point guard and center to justify an expectation of seven more wins.”
What’s weird: Not that he was a great 3-point shooter last season (31.2% on 3.9 attempts), but Jalen Johnson is making just 15% of his 3s thus far. Despite that, he’s averaging an efficient 21.3 (thanks to 58% on 2-pointers and only 2.2 3-point attempts per game), 9.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.5 steals. The shooting won’t stay that bad but, even as-is, this dude is a star.
Looking ahead: Things were going roughly as I’d expected for the Hawks before news that Trae Young’s sprained right MCL won’t even be evaluated for four weeks. The remaining cast is solid, assuming guys like Dyson Daniels and Zaccharie Risacher bounce back as the season goes on, but a team with depth concerns at the point with Trae Young isn’t equipped for a prolonged stretch without him.
Happily for Hawks fans, the abhorrently bad 0-6 New Orleans Pelicans traded their 2026 first-rounder, unprotected, to Atlanta to move up in the 2025 draft. This season may get rough, but that should ease the pain.
Boston Celtics
Current record: 3-5 (12th in the East)
My preseason call: UNDER 40.5 wins
What I expected: “... Brown, White, Simons, Pritchard, Sam Hauser, Luka Garza, and Spanish rookie Hugo González will not win very many games at all — certainly not 41. So, the plan for this season will likely entail assessing and developing the young guys, getting max return on a Simons trade before the deadline, making the most of their (presumptive) forthcoming back-half-of-the-top-ten draft pick, and running it back in ‘26-’27.”
What’s weird: Last season, the Celtics ranked 21st and 26th, respectively, in assisted 2- and 3-point baskets. With both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown healthy, this is eminently understandable. That they’ve fallen to rock bottom in both with Tatum out of the lineup is not ideal.
Looking ahead: I expected this team to remain tough and competitive night-to-night. They managed to rebound from an 0-3 start despite allowing free throws at the fourth-highest rate in the NBA (.281 FTA/FGA allowed) and Derrick White and Payton Pritchard hitting just 22% of their 3s (3.7 of 16.8 attempts per game). Unfortunately, that three-game win streak has since given way to a pair of home losses: a 25-pasting by the Rockets and a two-point loss to the Jazz.
While those shooting numbers should rebound and the effort will not wane, this team doesn’t have enough to grind out a .500 season. Maybe their lottery pick falls closer to #11 than, say, #7, but I see no reason to amend my expectations.
Brooklyn Nets
Current record: 0-7 (15th in the East)
My preseason call: UNDER 20.5 wins
What I expected: “... a grim MPJ-Cam chuck-fest this season in pursuit of a win tally in the teens.”
What’s weird: Nothing. The Nets have lost all seven games they’ve played, have the second-worst net rating in the NBA (-15.7), and Michael Porter Jr. and Cam Thomas are averaging a combined 45 points on nearly 36 shots per game. No notes.
Looking ahead: Barring a two-year turn of events unlikely enough to safely be deemed impossible, the Nets will lose their 2027 first-round pick to the Houston Rockets in a swap. So, all the eggs are in the 2026 basket. Things couldn’t be going better.
Charlotte Hornets
Current record: 3-4 (11th in the East)
My preseason call: OVER 27.5 wins
What I expected: “... things might be brighter than they’ve been for a while in the Queen City. Sadly, that says more about how things have been than the current state of play. I’m wary of going overboard and projecting the Hornets a win total into the 30s, but there are enough dregs and mediocrities in the East, and this group does, at the very least, seem to be trying hard and having fun — in this conference, that’s worth 28-30 wins.”
What’s weird: Rookie (#33 overall) Sion James is making 72.2% of 2.2 3-point attempts per game. Of course that number is coming back to Earth, probably quite soon. But, given his improvement as a shooter over five college seasons — 28% from 3 and 65% on free throws in his first of four seasons at Tulane, to 41.3% and 81% in a lone season at Duke — I’m intrigued.
Looking ahead: Despite a bottom-five defense, the Hornets have not only a positive net rating (+0.6, tied with the Magic), but one better than those of the Cavs and Clippers. That likely won’t hold, as putrid defense will consistently cost this team throughout the season. That said, I am adjusting my assessment of LaMelo Ball to “seriously unserious” (unseriously serious?) and my win total expectation to 33-34.
Chicago Bulls
Current record: 5-1 (2nd in the East)
My preseason call: OVER 32.5 wins
What I expected: “A less-good version of the Raptors”, who, with enough breaks, “should top a modest 32.5-win projection and once again be in the Play-In mix.”
What’s weird: What isn’t?? Apparently, Josh Giddey just is that dude from last season’s home stretch? Shit, for now, he’s better:
“Inoffensively excellent” Nikola Vučević is making 53.8% of his 3-pointers and producing like an all-timer. Ayo Dosunmu didn’t just recapture his shooting stroke; he’s shooting 58/48/85 and playing like an All-Star. Matas Buzelis isn’t quite as good as his surface stats suggest, but he’s decidedly improved — and a fun watch. Patrick Williams is making 44% of his triples…
Looking ahead: Suffice it to say, my dismissive “over” call on the Bulls’ win total is looking solid. That said, I got this team wrong.
I expect some of what’s popped for this team to regress with time, and I still don’t expect this team to make a major impact come playoff time. That said, enough different things are working well enough, smoothly enough, that this team can absorb some regression and still notch the 42-45 wins necessary to make the Play-In the worst-case scenario rather than the goal.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Current record: 4-3 (7th in the East)
My preseason call: UNDER 56.5 wins
What I expected: “The Cavs are in an incredibly awkward spot: Finals-or-bust despite not having come particularly close to the conference finals. I wonder how that colors this season for these guys… In the end, the Cavs remain really good and should lock up a top-four seed in the East, but with fewer than 57 regular season wins.”
What’s weird: I dunno… not that much? I guess second-year man Jaylon Tyson averaging 10.9 points per game and making 44% of five 3-point attempts per game? Or, conversely, De’Andre Hunter only making slightly more than a quarter of his 8.6 triple tries per game?
Looking ahead: I’ve admittedly not watched a ton of the Cavs early on, but what they’ve managed thus far is perfectly fine, given that Darius Garland and Max Strus both have yet to take the floor this season, Sam Merrill (17.3 points per game, with 51.4% on 8.8 3-point attempts per) has missed the last three games with a hip contusion, and Jarrett Allen is dealing with a broken finger.
Unfortunately, Darius Garland and Max Strus do both have yet to take the floor this season. Merrill’s star-level production through four games was far more a necessity than the Cavs would have hoped. And Jarrett Allen is dealing with a broken finger. While I’m assuming that Donovan Mitchell’s recent rest with hamstring tightness was nothing more than load management, the top-end talent here is wearing a little thin.
I still really like this team at full strength, but they’re actually going to have to get to full strength at some point. If the procession to the injury report doesn’t reverse course soon, this season could get really wobbly.
Detroit Pistons
Current record: 5-2 (4th in the East)
My preseason call: OVER 45.5 wins
What I expected: “Not only am I unconcerned about how this group responds to real expectations for the first time in their NBA careers, I’ve got 50 wins and a trip to the conference finals on the table.”
What’s weird: I don’t imagine Cade Cunningham (30.2% from 3, 43.2% overall) and Tobias Harris (28.6%/39.4%) will shoot this poorly for much longer. On the bright side, Ron Holland (32.0%, up from 23.8%) has markedly, if not eye-poppingly, improved from deep.
Looking ahead: Poor shooting from Cunningham (and Harris, Holland, and Ausar Thompson) aside, the Pistons look a lot like what an optimist would have expected. Duncan Robinson has ably replaced Malik Beasley. Jalen Duren is a small sample icon:
Isaiah Stewart is making 40% of his 3s and blocking 2.3 shots in 24 minutes per game. Six of their top seven — Cunningham, Duren, Thompson, Holland, Stewart, and Harris — are playing plus defense. And they just got Caris LeVert back from a hamstring injury.
Despite playing one of the toughest schedules in the league thus far, they’re excellent defensively (5th in Defensive Rating), have a top-ten net rating (+3.5; t-9th), are top-third in free throw rate, better than average both protecting the ball and forcing turnovers, and are allowing the second-lowest Effective Field Goal percentage (50.7%, behind only OKC, at 50.3%).
Even with the poor shooting, this team is a tough out every night. With even a modest bounce in shooting from Cunningham and fully healthy LeVert in tow, I’m every bit as optimistic about the Pistons as I was before the season.
Indiana Pacers
Current record: 1-5 (13th in the East)
My preseason call: OVER 38.5 wins
What I expected: “Assuming the nagging injury concerns at point guard don’t become full-blown issues, in This Eastern ConferenceⓇ, there’s a case to be made their regular season win total doesn’t fall that far — certainly not by ten!”
What’s weird: I don’t know that it’s “weird,” just a bummer. Entering a season with Tyrese Haliburton out, T.J. McConnell out behind him, and Myles Turner now in Milwaukee, and then losing Andrew Nembhard, Bennedict Mathurin, and Obi Toppin in a one-week span, within two weeks of opening night? Sigh.
Looking ahead: I stand by my rationale in forecasting a solid season for the Haliburton-less, post-Turner Pacers. My high opinion of the players and coaching here has not changed. The season has just gone the other way with a brutal spate of injuries.
As distasteful as tanking is at scale, sometimes it is just what you need. Without Haliburton and Turner, this team has a ceiling of, say, the #6 seed? And even that assessment includes some goodwill. Barring some sort of miraculous reversal of this horrific start, I expect the Pacers to be better than they’ve been, but nothing close to “good.” Certainly not a playoff team. And that’s frankly fine.
This season was always going to be a placeholder. I expect Indy to keep battling every time out, but don’t see them getting many wins for their trouble. I assume they’ll start downshifting around Game 60 to bolster the lottery pick joining Haliburton on his return.
Miami Heat
Current record: 4-3 (5th in the East)
My preseason call: OVER 37.5 wins
What I expected: “As much fun as it is side-eyeing and snickering about #HeatCulture, I am now convinced that shit is real and will outlive us all… assuming even decent health from this point forward, I’m expecting something in the 41-44-win range and a 6th-to-8th-place in the East.”
What’s weird: Undrafted in 2021, 28-year-old guard Dru Smith, who also played 10 games with the Nets as a rookie in 2022-23, is now in his fourth season in Miami. Starting in September 2021 — more than a year before his October 2022 NBA debut — he has been:
Signed by the Heat
Waived by the Heat (October 2021)
Signed by the Heat (September 2022)
Signed to a two-way contract by the Heat (October 2022)
Waived by the Heat (November 2022)
November 13, 2022: Waived by the Miami Heat.
Signed to a two-way contract by the Heat (November 2022)
Waived by the Heat (December 2022)
Signed to a two-way contract by the Nets (January 2023)
Signed to a two-way contract by the Heat (July 2023)
Converted from a two-way to a regular contract by the Heat (October 2023)
Waived by the Heat (March 2024)
Signed to a two-way contract by the Heat (July 2024)
Signed to a three-year (two guaranteed) contract by the Heat (August 2025)
Through six games, among Heat guards, only Davion Mitchell (203) and Pelle Larsson (123) have played more minutes than Smith (118), who has made 16 of 32 shots, 6-of-15 3s, is averaging 3.9 assists, and has more steals (10) than anyone on the roster. Prime Heat Shit.
In a similar vein, we have Larsson, a Swedish two-guard who played a year of college ball at Utah, and three more at Arizona before being selected in the second round (#44 overall) by the Rockets in 2024 and traded to the Heat a year ago, for basically nothing. He only played a bit part (55 games, 14 minutes, and 4.6 points per) in 2024-25.
In the three games Norman Powell missed with a groin injury, Pelle set and matched a new career-high (17) and made over 40% (5-of-12) of his 3-pointers. Congratulations to him for that — and the inevitable four-year, $56 million deal he’ll sign in the summer of 2027. PHS.
Looking ahead: Though their early record doesn’t scream it, the Heat are one of the NBA’s best teams, at both ends of the floor, period. They rank third in Defensive Rating (109.9), sixth in Net Rating (+6.4), True Shooting (61.1%; 5th), layups allowed (20.8% of opposing attempts; 2nd), Effective Field Goal Percentage (58.2%; 4th), field goal percentage within 3 feet of the rim (75.7%; 4th), opponents’ field goal percentage (44.9%; 5th), defensive rebound rate (77.5%; 6th), and 11th in Offensive Rating.
Bam Adebayo and Jaime Jaquez Jr. have started out like All-Stars. Norman Powell looks like an ideal fit. Simone Fontecchio is making 51.3% of 5.6 3-point attempts per game. Davion Mitchell (8.9 points, 7.7 assists per game, with 46/35 FG/3-point shooting), Kel’el Ware (9.7 and 6.6 rebounds), Nikola Jović (8.7 PPG), and the aforementioned Larsson and Smith offer solid depth. And they should get Tyler Herro sometime around Thanksgiving.
I thought this team was too good to be too bad in the weakest division in a depleted conference. They certainly are that. And, apparently, more! At this point, the focus on South Beach should be on battling the Magic for the Southeast Division and a top-four playoff seed.
Milwaukee Bucks
Current record: 5-2 (3rd in the East)
My preseason call: UNDER 42.5 wins
What I expected: “... this is probably going to be the most Giannis we’ve seen yet. Like Kobe in 2005-06, or Russ in 2016-17. If he stays healthy, in a more on-ball role, we could see 33/14/8 and another top-three MVP finish. Unfortunately, there’s just not enough else here for this to be more than a fringe playoff team… assuming 70+ games of Peak Giannis, this is probably a .500-ish Play-In team with a conference semis ceiling, staring down an impossible summer.”
What’s weird: Did you know that only two players in NBA history have ever made it five games into a season — no minutes restrictions — with a Win Shares/48 minutes mark of at least .40? The first, Jared Harper, a point guard out of Auburn in his third and (for now) final NBA season, managed the feat in 2021-22, in 43 minutes over five games with the Pelicans. The other?
Looking ahead: For going on a decade, Giannis has basically been Prime Shaq. The version he’s giving us right now is noticeably better than that. I don’t know that superlatives or hyperbole will add much to that statement. He’s averaging 34/13/7 with 1.2 blocks per game, making a silly 68.4% of his shots (his previous career-best is 61.1%), 62.5% of his 3s, and, despite increased ball-handling responsibilities, turning the ball over at a career-low rate. His 40.8 PER is about 25% higher than the current best full-season mark (Joker in 2021-22). Okay, just one superlative: At this moment, right now, Giannis is the ultimate basketball player.
I know this stuff will settle to some degree with time and that the workload could take a toll. I don’t care. Getting to watch a top-ten-ish all-timer, at the peak of his powers, under a microscope, out of necessity, plumbing every last bit of his outrageous ability, is awesome.
I got this team wrong by underestimating the supporting cast. Oops! Fresh from Indy, Myles Turner hasn’t even played well (9.8 points per game, 39% shooting) and the Bucks rank fourth offensively. The shooters have been excellent, namely A.J. Green (51.3% on 6.5 3-point attempts), Taurean Prince (52.6% on 3.2 attempts), and Ryan Rollins (40% on 5 attempts), who probably could have been “what’s weird,” but anyway, has been a fucking revelation. His 18.2 points, 5.5 assists, and 2.3 steals per game, and ludicrous 95.5% success rate from within three feet, on more than five attempts per game, is everything the Bucks could have hoped for with a healthy Dame Lillard.
With this type of supporting play, assuming Turner finds his stride and 70+ games of Peak Giannis, this could well be the top-five seed and maybe Central champs.
New York Knicks
Current record: 4-3 (6th in the East)
My preseason call: OVER 53.5 wins
What I expected: “With even reasonable health, this should be an excellent team again — 54+ wins excellent — and the favorites in the Eastern Conference.”
What’s weird/Looking ahead: I dunno, nothing, really? It’s been a rocky start for the Knicks under Mike Brown, but the bones of what this team is and will be are in place and defined. They’ve strung together two solid wins, handing the Bulls their first loss (128-116) and then blowing out the Wizards. They’re obviously going to need better play from Karl-Anthony Towns, but KAT’s just been the player he is, for better and worse, for too long for me to be worried. He had 20 on just 11 shots (2-2 from 3) and 15 boards against the Bulls, and just put 33 and 13 on the Wiz. He’s fine.
The Knicks are still my favorite in the East, but it would be nice to see more emphatic displays. But it’s also just fine.
Orlando Magic
Current record: 3-4 (10th in the East)
My preseason call: OVER 51.5 wins
What I expected: “Assuming Franz Wagner’s early bounce to “solid” from 3-point range is real — and Paolo Banchero’s brutal start is not — this team is a potential powerhouse. Early stumbles aside, in the most perennially underwhelming division in NBA history, that could very well mean three All-Stars, 55 regular season wins, and a spot in the NBA’s final four.”
What’s weird: I was initially also going to get into Paolo Banchero’s nightmarish opening three games, in which he made just two of 12 3-point attempts, committed eight turnovers, and had three total assists. But Paolo has seemingly found his stride, with 26, 9.5 rebounds, 6.3 assists, a block and a half, at 35% from 3 in his last four outings, the last two of which have pulled the Magic to within a game of .500.
Instead, it’s got to be Desmond Bane playing sub-replacement ball. 41.9% from the floor, 25.8% from 3,
Looking ahead: Bane’s play has me less emphatic in my confidence in the Magic as a dark horse contender. I don’t know why. Bane is not this. Quite soon, he’ll be back to a version of the guy he was in Memphis, the guy whose acquisition made too much sense to pass up.
Assuming that bounceback and that Franz Wagner’s breakout from deep is real — even if he’s not quite a 43% shooter, I’m inclined to believe it is — with Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr. (11.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, 56.3% from 3), an ultra-efficient backup in Goga Bitadze, and better ball protection at the point from Anthony Black (21.7% turnover rate) and Jalen Suggs (28.9%!). With a little more on offense, this is the team I was so bullish on, with plenty of time to jell.
I still think this is a 50-ish win team and a threat in the playoffs, but I am slightly questioning my “breakout contender” call. I’m sure I’ll be fully back once I see it, but I do want to see it.
Philadelphia 76ers
Current record: 5-1 (1st in the East)
My preseason call: OVER 42.5 wins
What I expected: “I’ve been, rightly, I guess, really down on the Sixers for some time now. This season I’m… kinda on board?
I still think that too many things have to fall right for this team to be a legitimate contender. That said, I feel really good about an Embiid-Maxey-PG-Edgecombe top four, 45-48 wins, a top-six playoff seed, and… maybe even a series win??”
What’s weird: Just how little Joel Embiid factors into all of this. I’m not saying he’s not already significant (39% from 3, 17.3 points and 3.5 assists per game) and won’t round into something closer to the best version of himself, but Embiid is now, probably forever, if we’re being honest, a #2/2A option. I think he’s got another gear, maybe two in him, but there’s no taking touches away from Tyrese Maxey and ludicrously fuid VJ Edgecombe:
Looking ahead: I didn’t think the Sixers would be this good. I was also wrong about how they would be good if they were in fact good. I assumed Embiid would be closer to the center of this2. Instead, he’s the Sixers’ fifth leading scorer, behind Quentin Grimes (18.2), Kelly Oubre Jr. (19.5), Edgecombe (20.3), and Maxey, who is playing MVP-caliber ball, with 33.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, 9.0 assists, and more than a steal, while making 46% of his triples, with a sub-10% turnover rate! As much as I’ve liked Maxey and thought highly of his game over the years, I didn’t anticipate this. He’s been unreal. What an exquisite player.
I truly mean no disrespect to Joel Embiid, but I love this team now. The way they’re succeeding, combined with Embiid rounding into form would make this a Finals contender. That they don’t need it to look like one, even for a brief stretch, makes this situation a lot less scary.
Toronto Raptors
Current record: 3-4 (8th in the East)
My preseason call: UNDER 39.5
What I expected: “There’s no meaningful ceiling here. This team is too good to bottom out but, if healthy and pushing all season, good for, what, 38 wins? Then what? A half-decade bouncing between the Play-In and picking #8 overall?
If he’s got the political cover internally to do so, [new] GM Bobby Webster would probably be best served initiating a targeted teardown and packing it in for ping pong balls. Sadly, regardless, this team isn’t winning 40 games.”
What’s weird/Looking ahead: This season was always going to go the way it’s going. Too good to be terrible, not good enough to luck into contention, with a questionable ceiling.
Individually, outside of Immanuel Quickley (39/28 shooting), the Raptors have gotten production from their top guys. Scottie Barnes has been excellent, averaging 20.6 (50/47 FG/3-pt), with 7.4 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and more than a block and a steal per game. Brandon Ingram is averaging 22, 6, and 4 with 55/39 FG/3-point shooting. RJ Barrett is scoring 20.4 a night on 56% shooting. That, objectively, is excellent, across the board. But the end result is flat.
The schedule lets up a bit going forward so the Raptors should rack up some wins, but it’s tough to see the inspiration for more than a high-30s ceiling for this group.
Washington Wizards
Current record: 1-5 (14th in the East)
My preseason call: UNDER 21.5 wins
What I expected: “I hate to diverge so harshly from all that pseudo-positivity, but this team is likely to be AWFUL. That, of course, is by design. My hope is that the route to this latest iteration of 15-17 regular season wins doesn’t completely torpedo what could be an interesting young core.”
What’s weird: Every so often, a truly terrible team winds up in my rotation. There’s a non-zero chance I look at this Wizards team for such a fling. I like some of their young guys. I don’t know if any of their young guys are sustainably good. It could be fun. But I’ll level with you: thus far, the Wiz have not factored into my 2025-26 NBA experience.
Looking ahead: Things are as they were between me and the Wiz.
I realize one could question this, as it’s barely been one week since I actually finished the East previews, but I made a conscious effort to stay as true to my offseason opinions as possible.
Pun not intended but also not deleted.