Mea Culpas and Victories Laps — Re-Reading Between the Lines, Eastern Conference
Looking in on the goings-on in the NBA's Eastern Conference, a month into the 2024-25 season.
A month into the 2024-25 NBA season, certain phenomena — some expected, others not — have, somewhat emphatically, made their presence known. The most emphatic of these realizations is that, more comprehensively than most, this season will be defined not by sustained health or injury prevention but successful recuperation, timely health, and luck.
Another overarching theme is Capitalism’s billionaire heroes’ affinity for limits, backstops, and safeguards for their own enterprises. Welfare, socialism, parity, whatever.
In the Western Conference, this has meant a dozen teams, of varying degrees of being between “pretty good” and “excellent,” slogging their way through a gauntlet. In the East, however, we've got two crystal-clear favorites, two, maybe three decidedly good teams who’ll need a good bit of luck to beat either of them, a (to be kind) amorphous mass, with a pair of notable Acela stops in the basement.
Almost exactly a month ago, I put forth some expectations for the Eastern Conference’s 15 teams in the latest edition of my Reading Between the Lines season preview. This seems as good a time as any to check in and see how things are going…
Atlanta Hawks
The Call: UNDER 36.5
As of November 23: 7-10 (-5.0 Net Rating; 23rd in the NBA)
Summed Up: “It’s not that there’s no talent on the roster, but there’s just nothing to get excited about. This season will bring well under 36.5 wins and the end of the Trae Young era in Atlanta.”
How Goes It? Through 16 games, the Hawks sit fifth in the Eastern Conference. Trae Young is neck and neck with Nikola Jokić for the NBA’s assists crown. There’s an intriguing young trio here in Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, and Onyeka Okongwu. And by and large, the vibes seem pretty decent.
All that said, nothing that’s happened thus far has soured me on the opinion that Trae Young cannot be the undisputed #1 on a serious contender. After an excellent two-game start to the season in which he averaged 34 and $1.10 and led the Hawks to a pair of wins, Young has fallen off, averaging 20.4 points and almost five turnovers per game, while making just over 37% of his shots. Even when he has played well, it hasn’t yielded results, as four of his top seven 20+ Basketball Reference Games Scores have come in losses.
Heading into the season, I was all out on this team, predicting at one point (apparently not here) that they’d finish closer to the top three in lottery odds than the play-in spots. That’s likely to prove incorrect. However, unless De'Andre Hunter, who’s had a couple of good games since returning from injury, can stay healthy and meaningfully raise the floor and the ceiling of the Hawks’ Trae-less offense, 37 wins still feels rich.
Boston Celtics
The Call: (Slight) UNDER 58.5
As of November 23: 13-3 (+9.9 Net Rating; 3rd in the NBA)
Summed Up: “Everyone of consequence returns… Even with Kristaps Porzingis out until at least December, it’s tough to imagine this team losing a third of its games… though another 60-win season may be a tall order.”
How Goes It? To be fair, I was hardly predicting a significant drop-off for the reigning champs. I just figured through a combination of a post-title hangover, injuries (Porzingis initially, but potentially others), and the general disdain for having to show up for the regular season that permeates the NBA’s contender class, these guys would only win like 70% of their games.
Through 15 games, the C’s sit at .800, their three losses have come by a combined 10 points, and just ended the Cavs’ spectacular start. Barring a plague of injuries, I don’t see how this team loses 21 more times this season.
Brooklyn Nets
The Call: UNDER 19.5
As of November 23: 6-10 (-3.9 Net Rating; 20th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “This roster features about a half-dozen guys who, in the right situation, could be excellent role players. Unfortunately, there’s not a true headliner to be found.”
How Goes It? In fact, the Nets have nine players who reside somewhere on the NBA usefulness spectrum. Only one player who’s seen the floor for more than two minutes this season, Keon Johnson, is a clear minus offensively, and he’s contributing on D. And not one of the 16 players to suit up for this team thus far is worse than break even (by DWS) on that end.
I thought this team had NBA-caliber players. I thought they might be frisky. I also thought they’d be really bad. Well, all those NBA-caliber players have made this team frisky. And while the Nets are far from good, they’re too varied and competent, especially in this Eastern Conference, to not win 13 of their next 67 games.
Charlotte Hornets
The Call: OVER 30.5
As of November 23: 6-9 (-4.5 Net Rating; 22nd in the NBA)
Summed Up: “LaMelo Ball, when healthy, is a game-changer, Brandon Miller looks legit, there are real NBA players filling out the rotation, and, by all accounts, Charles Lee should be a good coach.”
How Goes It? Basically as expected — with caveats.
LaMelo (28.9 points and 6.7 assists per game) is a savant with more than a dusting of superstar pixy dust — though a Usage Rate (a league-high 37.7%) that’s 2 ticks higher than his 3-point percentage (35.6%) and 4.2 turnovers and fouls per game are impediments to consistent winning.
Before Thursday’s 38-point, seven-rebound, four-assist, four-steal (and seven-turnover) explosion against the Pistons, Brandon Miller has struggled with consistency and efficiency, frequently looking like the platonic ideal of a rangy, two-way wing but just as often struggling, shooting under 39% from the floor and 33% from beyond the arc.
And there is NBA talent all over the roster. Grant Williams has been decent. He (36.9% on 3s), Tre Mann (14.8 ppg, 42.1% from 3), Cody Martin (40% on 3.4 3s per game), and Josh Green (51.6% on 2.6 per game) have shouldered the outside shooting load.
A huge key is big man Nick Richards, who was averaging 11, 10, and 2.4 blocks per game when he suffered a rib cartilage fracture on November 1. If he returns and looks like himself — and, ideally, Mark Williams returns from the back injury he suffered last December — one win every three games is eminently doable. Even if he doesn’t, in this shitshow of a conference, any uptick in efficiency from LeMelo and even a moderately more consistent Miler could get it done.
I’m less confident than before the season, but not enough to bail yet.
Chicago Bulls
The Call: UNDER 27.5
As of November 23: 7-10 (-5.9 Net Rating; 25th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “If Lonzo, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vučević, and Coby White all stay mostly healthy, it’s tough to see this as much more than a 32-34-win team. That simply can’t remain the plan… tear this thing down, win far fewer than 27.5 games, and look to a new, less depressing era.”
How Goes It? On Halloween, this team sat at 3-2, and “Are the Bulls frisky?” was a thing one could ask unironically. They’ve since lost eight of eleven, five by 15+, including a 36-point waxing at home by Houston last week. Lonzo Ball, who’d been out of action since January 2022, tallied 14 points and 11 assists in roughly 48 minutes across three games to start the season, has been sidelined by a wrist injury since October 28.
Patrick Williams, after a brutal start to the season, looked to be turning a corner with a solid week ending November 15. He’s since turned in a pair of stinkers and is now out indefinitely with a foot injury. And trading Alex Caruso for Josh Giddey and nothing else probably feels worse than watching him walk away for nothing — and I’m a Laker fan.
So, no, dear reader, the Bulls, at present, are decidedly not frisky.
And yet, at the top of the roster, LaVine, Vučević, and White have been fantastic. The “worst” of the bunch, White, is averaging 19.5 points on 44.5% shooting and 38.1% from 3, along with 4.8 assists. LaVine is averaging 22.3, 5.1, and 4.2, with 52.1%/43.7% shooting. Vučević, meanwhile, is killing it, He’s scored at least 18 points and grabbed at least 10 rebounds in 14 of 17 games, and is averaging 20.2 and 9.8, while shooting 57.7% from the field and 46.1% from beyond the arc.
As well as these three are playing, as has been the case for a while now, there’s neither a window to maximize nor a plan for cracking one open. If all three stay healthy and play the season in Chicago, a run at 30 wins is certainly feasible. Don’t bank on either of those things happening.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Call: OVER 48.5
As of November 23: 16-1 (+12.3 Net Rating; 1st in the NBA)
Summed Up: “Despite the redundancies both up front with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen) and in the backcourt with Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, there’s enough shooting, playmaking, and defense here to win three out of every five games.”
How Goes It? Quite well, I’d say.
Detroit Pistons
The Call: OVER 26.5
As of November 23: 7-10 (-1.2 Net Rating; 18th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “Despite mountains of tangible evidence to the contrary, I’m going back to the well. I still see the bones of a decent NBA team in Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren, Ausar Thompson, Isaiah Stewart, and Jaden Ivey.”
How Goes It? This team started last season 2-1 and then proceeded to lose 38 of 40, including 28 straight. Despite battling, they lost their first four to start this season. It felt ominous.
Ever since, however, they’ve won seven of twelve — and it could have been nine if not for a last-second tip-in in Charlotte and some missed free throws against the Rockets. It’s admittedly not been against the stiffest of competition but—
Let’s stop for a second, take a step back, and consider where we’re at with this team. Not only are the Pistons not everyone else’s get-right team, they’re winning games they should win. And it all feels coherent.
Cade Cunningham is LEGIT. 23.5, 7.2 boards, 8.9 assists, four triple-doubles (and, yes, also a league-leading 79 turnovers through 17 games), and a perfect mix of stoicism and intensity. That he endured as shitty a first three seasons as he did and came out of it not just unbroken but still even-keeled and ascendant? He’s a perfect catalyst and star for this team. Jaden Ivey is an excellent explosive complement. Jalen Duren is the exact type of powerful, explosive old-school big I miss. And Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, and Tim Hardaway, Jr. are ideal veterans for this type of team — solidly productive without stunting the development of the young guys.
Not gonna lie, I kinda love this team.
Indiana Pacers
The Call: OVER 46.5
As of November 23: 6-10 (-4.5 Net Rating; 21st in the NBA)
Summed Up: “Tyrese Haliburton is more or less the platonic ideal of a point guard. Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, and Myles Turner round out a hell of a starting five. And T.J. McConnell, Benn Mathurin, Obi Toppin, and Jarace Walker are pretty solid support off the bench. And the whole thing feels coherent.”
How Goes It? Not well. BAD, one might even say.
The Pacers finished 24th in defensive rating last season and were not expected to suddenly shoot up those rankings this season. Fortunately, even a modest improvement to, say, 18th would have been enough to ensconce this team in the East’s top-4/5. Unfortunately, a wave of injuries — Isaiah Jackson tore his Achilles on November 2, Andrew Nembhard (knee) and Aaron Nesmith (ankle) have played a combined 13 games, and Myles Turner has recently battled a calf injury — has depleted the Pacers’ front line, leaving them bottom-two in offensive rebounding, 24th on the defensive glass, and 27th in defensive rating.
Exacerbating matters is an issue that NO ONE saw coming: the complete collapse in Tyrese Haliburton’s shot. Over his first four NBA seasons, Haliburton never shot worse than 47.2% from the field or 36.4% from 3-point range — and even that career-low last season looked an outlier on the heels of three 40%-plus seasons. For one reason or another, it’s all gone off the rails this season, with Haliburton making under 38% from the field and an astounding 29.4% from beyond the arc.
The silver lining here is that, despite the nightmarish circumstances, Indy, currently tenth in the East, is just a game and a half behind the fifth-seeded Heat. Assuming Haliburton finds his shot soon — and it’s only reasonable to do so — I’d expect them to pass at least two or three of the Hornets-Hawks-Pistons-Nets-Heat logjam immediately ahead of them (if the Bucks have gotten their shit together, that’s a much tougher ask), but a 50+-win breakout is probably not happening.
Miami Heat
The Call: UNDER 44.5
As of November 23: 6-7 (+0.8 Net Rating; 15th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “Assuming Jimmy Butler gets dealt at some point this season… However awesome Bam Adebayo may be (quite), the remaining rotation of Tyler Herro, Jaime Jacquez, Jr., Terry Rozier, Duncan Robinson, Nikola Jović (I guess), Alec Burks, and Thomas Bryant, while competent, doesn’t fill me with confidence.”
How Goes It? In the season-opening piece, I also conceded that “I look forward to Spo, Bam, and Co. making me look like a fool next spring, but I’m going under 44.5.”
Watching Jimmy return a couple of nights ago, after missing essentially five games, and drop 30 (on just 12 shots and 13-for-13 from the line), with 10 rebounds and five assists…
Milwaukee Bucks
The Call: OVER 49.5
As of November 23: 7-9 (-0.1 Net Rating; 17th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “I still believe staunchly in the Giannis-Dame pairing. If the pair can stay reasonably healthy all season, almost regalrdless of whatever else happens, 50+ wins is a lock.”
How Goes It?
In all seriousness, this thing is shaping up to be a slog. The Bucks lost eight of ten to start the season, aren’t markedly “better than their record” (7-9, vs. 8-8 “expected”), and, despite medical clearance, are unsure when they’ll have Knris Middleton back, certainly at his best. The Bucks do seem to have put their disastrous start behind them with wins in five of their last six — though just one, a late one-pointer at home against Houston, against an over-.500 team.
On the bright side, there are a few factors to suggest this upswing may have legs.
Giannis — the NBA’s leading scorer at 32.4 points per game and fifth-leading rebounder at 12 per — is in peak MVP form. Over the last five, has averaged an obscene 35.8, 12.2, 8.4 assists, and 1.8 blocks, kicked off by a 59-14-7 (plus three blocks and two steals) against the Pistons on November 13.
Damian Lillard missed the first three games of this stretch and is only 5-of-24 from 3-point range since returning, but has dished out 33 assists in the three wins.
Brook Lopez has turned in his first three 20-point games of the season in the last five, including a 27-10-4-block effort against the Rockets.
Taurean Prince is hitting his 3s at an awesome 52.5% clip. Take out a combined 0-for-6 against the Rockets and Bulls, and he’s made 13 of 21 since November 12 and a silly 58.1% on the season!
After averaging just 6,4 points on sub-29% shooting (22.5% from 3) in his first nine games, Gary Trent, Jr. is averaging 12.4 per over his last five, with a 3-point percentage (56.3%!!) better than his excellent overall field goal percentage (52.5%).
After a brutal, sub-25% start to the season, Bobby Portis has made six of his last ten triples.
A.J. Green is making almost 47% of five 3-point attempts per game.
The bottom line remains the same: To meaningfully contend, the Bucks need an at-least-reasonably-healthy Khris Middleton. That said — and shelving the “LOL Doc” shit for a second — of the prospective 50-win teams to scuffle out of the gate, this feels like the likeliest one to win two out of every three the rest of the way.
New York Knicks
The Call: OVER 54.5
As of November 23: 9-6 (+6.6 Net Rating; 6th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “I am pretty emphatically in on this Knicks team… the KAT-Bridges-Josh Hart-OG Anunoby-Jalen Brunson lineup will be deadly from the perimeter. Meanwhile, Bridges, Hart, and Anunoby will nullify most opposing perimeter attacks… Brunson’s talismanic confidence [allowing KAT to not have to be “the guy”] and Tom Thibodeau’s propensity for running short rotations should put 55+ regular season wins very much on the table.”
How Goes It? This is not miles off the team I expected coming into the season. The offense has been outstanding, led by Karl-Anthony Towns’s absurd 26.8, 12.2, awesome 50% from 3, and Prime Shaq-esque .270. Win Shares/48. As expected, he has struggled defensively (rather noticeably, though the numbers feel differently), where the Knick ranks in the bottom third.
Meanwhile, afer making 12 of 20 3-pointers enroute to 62 points and 21 assists in his last two games, Jalen Brunson is once again over 40% from beyond the arc and averaging 25.2 points and a career-high 7.3 assists per game on slightly lower usage (30.2% vs. 32.5%).
Elsewhere, Mikal Bridges has struggled from beyond the arc (31.6%) but, along with OG Anunoby (who’s making 36.7% of his 3s) and Josh Hart (35.2%) is on fire from inside the arc. All three converting at least 60% of their two-pointers, led by Hart’s league-best 75.4% on 2s. The trio, along with Miles McBride (assuming his knee injury doesn't keep him out too long) and Cam Payne are excellent complements to the two leading men.
This isn't a perfect team, but it’s a damn good one that, if Coby White has smaller hair, is 10-5 and on pace for 54 wins.
Orlando Magic
The Call: OVER 47.5
As of November 23: 10-7 (+3.7 Net Rating; 9th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “If these guys can find any consistency on offense — they don’t even have to be prolific — a leap to 53-55 wins should be in the cards… If they can swing a trade or cobble it [consistent, productive point guard play] together from what’s already on the roster — or, honestly, even if they can’t — these guys should blow past 48 wins.”
How Goes It? After he put up 50, 13, and 9, and blocked two shots in the Magic’s fourth game of the season, I turned on the over and started proofing “Paolo Banchero MVP” takes. After their fifth game, a three-point loss in Chicago that dropped Orlando to 3-2, in which Banchero scored 31 and grabbed seven boards, everything was still all good.
Then came the brutal news that the reigning Rookie of theYear and All-Star, mid-superstar turn, had torn his right oblique and would not even be re-evaluated for 4-to-6 weeks. Things got even worse when big man Wendell Carter, Jr., a whole nine minutes of action after Banchero’s injury, was lost to plantar fasciitis in his left foot from which he’s still not returned (though he’s reportedly close).
Even in the face of two massive losses, I figured this team had enough talent to stay lively in this soft-centered conference. After all, despite a lack of brand names, this roster is packed with solid NBA pros.
To be honest, I didn’t expect a whole lot in the way of actual wins, but I figured they’d be a tough out most nights. After all, the two things this team lost when it lost Banchero, primary playmaking and outside shooting, are two key things in short supply even with Banchero. The only guys here who’ve logged at least 140 minutes with a 20%+ assist rate (Banchero was at 29.1%) are Jalen Suggs (20%), 2023 #6 overall pick Anthony Black (27%), and Franz Wagner. And the only Magic players making 3s (2+ attempts per game) at a better rate than Banchero’s roughly league-average 34.4% are another 2023 lottery pick (#11), Jett Howard (37.8% on 2.8 3PA per game), Gary Harris (34.9% on 2.9 per), and Wagner.
That guarded optimism hinged, of course, on a bounceback season from Wagner, who shot an awful 28% from deep last season. Suffice it to say Franz has been up to the task. Since Banchero went out, Wagner has averaged an awesome 25.4 points, 6.2 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. He’s handed out at least six assists in 10 of the Magic’s last 12 games and, after another slow start from the outside, made 39% of triples over the last five games, to bring his season mark to 35% on 6.1 attempts per game.
And it’s more than kept the team afloat. After losing their first four in a row “senza Paolo,” the Magic have won seven of eight. Admittedly the first five came against some serious dregs and stragglers, but they laid the fucking wood in those contests, winning by an average margin of 19 points! They’ve since gone on the road and beaten the Sun and Lakers. Sure, the Suns were without Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal and the Lakers’ ineptitude from the free throw line gift-wrapped the game for Orlando, but he wins count all the same!
Assuming Franz isn't inexplicably allergic to Banchero’s in-uniform presence, this looks like a team poised to go from “bereft without its game-changer” on Halloween, to red-hot top-four seed by Thanksgiving, to loaded for bear with two frontline stars by Christmas.
So, how goes it? Given the circumstances?
Philadelphia 76ers
The Call: UNDER 50.5
As of November 23: 3-11 (-9.0 Net Rating; 27th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “There’s nothing wrong with what the Sixers did this offseason. It also feels like the final, futile throes of an ill-fated era. Never mind picking this team to win it all, they’re not getting to 50 wins in the regular season.”
How Goes It? The Joel Embiid of all of this is standard fare at this point: a singular talent that, when healthy, is essentially unstoppable, but is never either deep into the playoffs (and frequently at other points on the calendar), who’s less funny and more whiny than he thinks he is. I’m not anti-Embiid, that shit’s all just what is.
I was less optimistic than most on this team heading into the season, but I didn’t expect this. A month in, due largely to injury and partly to a less emphatic confrontation than a local hack deserved, Embiid’s played four games — only one at anything close to peak ability — and is once again on the shelf until further notice. Paul George, another supreme talent with injury issues of his own, was brought in to complement Embiid and fortify a superstar core. He missed the season’s first five games with a hyperextended knee, and played eight of the next nine, averaging about 15, 5, 5, and 2.2 steals but made just 38.3% from the field and less than 28% of his triple tries. He, too, is sidelined again, after reaggravating the injury.
Most of the while, as he just missed two weeks himself, Tyrese Maxey’s been left to hold down the fort. He is, seemingly respectfully and without receiving much pushback, not delighted with what he’s seen.
In a month, we’ve gone from overzealous but not insane conversations about championship odds to wondering what, if any trade value Embiid, with four years and nearly a quarter-billion left on his deal, may still have. Isn’t simply an issue of trying to shed a healthy and consistently productive player with an untenably massive contract, the answer here is “virtually none.” That George is signed for three more seasons — his age 35-37 ones — for about $160 million (let’s assume that he is, rightly, will opt in for $56.6 mill in ‘27-’28) and Maxey more another four at almost $170 million, this is, for better and very much for worse, a long-term project.
Media altercations and team meetings aside, this season is lost. At 3-12 at the time of writing, the Sixers are better than only the delighted (upstairs, at least) to finally be tanking Jazz and perpetually hapless Wizards. As the team owns its 2025 first-rounder, the plan now should be to get Embiid and George as close as possible to 9-10 months to rest, recharge, recuperate, and work out, in the hope of teaming the duo, Maxey, and a top-three/five pick, and a renewed hope of contention.
Y’know, Trust the Pro—
Toronto Raptors
The Call: UNDER 29.5
As of November 23: 4-12 (-5.4 Net Rating; 24th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “If this squad is healthy and pushing all season, 30+ wins is eminently doable, But then what? I imagine these guys give this season an earnest go for 50, maybe 55 games, before packing it in for ping pong balls.”
How Goes It?
According to plan??
Obviously, no one associated with the Raptors wants to see a bloated injury report that includes Scottie Barnes’ fractured orbital (he’ll be re-evaluated in the next week or so) and Immanuel Quickley’s partially torn UCL. That said…
Assuming full and timely recoveries for all involved, in one, maybe two cases — say, Kelly Olynyk (back; out indefinitely, but starting to practice) and Bruce Brown, who had arthroscopic knee surgery in September, hasn’t played yet this season and remains “multiple weeks away” — perhaps in time for the trade deadline, a top-five pick alongside Barnes, Quickley, RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, and Gradey Dick wouldn’t be the worst follow-up to the reset started by last season’s trades of Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby.
Washington Wizards
The Call: UNDER 20.5
As of November 23:2-11 (-14.3 Net Rating; 30th in the NBA)
Summed Up: In the name of my dignity and both of our time, I will simply refer you to last year’s preview for this team. Some names have changed. The sentiment has not. Where the bookmakers found fodder for a 35% win total bump I will never know.”
How Goes It? Bilal Coulibaly is awesome. With more experience and consistency he’ll be a star. Alex Sarr, meanwhile, is raw as hell, but his promise is clear. He’s got a lot to learn and significant improvements to make, especially to his shot, but he moves with an impressive natural fluidity that comes through at both ends.
Defensively, he’s quick and rangy, can defend the paint and close out, and generally does not seem overwhelmed. He’s averaging more than two blocks without having committed more than four fouls in any game. Shit, it wasn’t until Year 6 that Jaren Jackson, Jr. became less foul-prone on a per-minute basis than Sarr is four weeks into his NBA career,
What’s it look like when it all comes together?
Whether he gets there or not remains to be seen, but I’m a buyer on Sarr’s upside.
Elsewhere on the roster, rookie Carlton Carrington (9.8, 4.1 boards, 4.8 assists, and 37.5% from 3) looks pretty good. Kyle Kuzma and Corey Kispert should be popular around deadline time. And free-range Jordan Poole is an albatross ($66 million over the next two years) whose comedic value has worn off.
Stay tuned for a similar check-in on the Western Conference in the next couple of days!