Reading Between the Lines - 2023-24 NBA Eastern Conference Preview
Unfathomable as it seems now, not that long ago integrating gambling into earnest, “serious” (whatever that means) sports writing was largely not done. It wasn’t some “cancelable offense” or anything. Just, I dunno, poor etiquette?
As a sports betting enthusiast, though, at Hardwood Hype (and anywhere else that would let me), I’d work in the lines, or my own player prop-betting experiences into any piece where they even remotely made sense.
My favorite of these exercises was Reading Between the Lines, in which I’d use the Season Win Total lines to frame team-by-team NBA previews. (Sadly, the archives were lost in a technical issue some time ago.) Most years it was a two-parter, though once I actually did 30 team-specific previews.
So, when launching League Pass in L’Eixample less than two weeks before Opening Night, it just made sense to have a “Reading Between the Lines” as the first “real” piece.
Without dragging this out any longer, here is the Reading Between the Lines 2023-24 Eastern Conference Preview:
Boston Celtics
Last season: 57-25; lost in conference finals to Heat (4-3)
Opened line: 53.5 regular season wins
Current line: 54.5 regular season wins
The Celtics pivoted this summer. Hard. There’s a case to be made that this is a better team than the one that came within a win of the Finals last spring. I am unconvinced.
The additions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis provide versatility on offense, outstanding perimeter defense, and rim protection. The problem, of course, is that the C’s sent out an equally good perimeter defender (and their vocal leader) in Marcus Smart. They also bid farewell to an elite rim protector (when healthy) in Robert Williams III. They’re also thinner (though less disgruntled) at the point with Malcolm Brogdon gone. Throw in the departure of Grant Williams and the frontcourt looks awfully thin, with only Porzingis (when healthy), 37-year-old Al Horford, and Wenyen Gabriel to protect the paint.
Boston’s top six (Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Holiday, Porzingis, and Horford) is one of the NBA’s best when healthy. And Brad Stevens has ammunition to deal for upgrades. As currently constructed, however, there are too many unknowns regarding depth, leadership, and chemistry, and too many competent-or-better teams in the NBA to pencil these guys in for 55+ wins. Under 54.5.
Milwaukee Bucks
Last season: 58-24; lost in the first round of the playoffs to Heat (4-1)
Opened: 52.5
Current: 53.5
It’s not an original question but one that warrants consideration: How is anyone going to contain a Dame-Giannis pick-and-roll? Trap Dame? Giannis rolls. Drop and Dame sticks one in your eye. Allow Dame into the lane and it’s either a layup for him or a lob to Giannis. This is a PERFECTLY complementary offensive pairing. They will be lethal.
All the while, Khris Middleton, and Brook Lopez - two of Dame’s five best-ever (and also perfectly complementary) teammates - Bobby Portis, and Pat Connaughton will have the most space and the biggest driving lanes of their careers. Seriously, duck and cover.
While the move from Holiday to Lillard is an obvious downgrade defensively, it’s tough to think of a duo up front better suited to compensate for Dame’s defensive deficiencies than Lopez and Giannis.
It will be on Jae Crowder, Malik Beasley, and second-year man MarJon Beauchamp to ensure that defensive and shooting depth don’t become issues as the season wears on. In the end, though, as long as Giannis, Dame, Lopez, and Middleton stay reasonably healthy, this team should put up a win total north of 53.5.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Last season: 51-31; lost in the first round of the playoffs to Knicks (4-1)
Opened: 49.5
Current: 50.5
Last season, the Cavs ranked second in the NBA in net rating (+5.5) and were one of three teams ( with the Sixers and the Celtics) to crack the top ten in both offensive (#8) and defensive rating (#1). That was good enough for 51 regular season wins, home court in the first round, and expectations for a trip to the conference semis.
Unfortunately, in the playoffs, the Cavs discovered the limitations of an offense built around two undersized guards, bigs who don’t space the floor, and minimal complementary shooting, and were summarily dismissed by the Knicks in five games.
Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland will continue to be awesome night in and night out. However, unless/until defensive linchpin (along with Jarrett Allen) Evan Mobley begins to space the floor, that fifth spot must pose a perimeter threat. Ideally, this will come in the form of Isaac Okoro, who’s a plus defender and posted career-best marks in both true shooting (61.4%) and 3-point shooting (36.3%) last season. If Okoro, newcomer Max Strus, and Caris LeVert command respect on the perimeter, this offense will thrive. That, combined with a perennially excellent defense will keep the Cavs near the top of the East.
This win total figure looks about right. If pressed, I’d lean slightly over 50.5.
Philadelphia 76ers
Last season: 54-28; lost in conference semifinals to Celtics (4-3)
Opened: 49.5
Current: 48.5
On multiple occasions this offseason I heard that “if things fall right, the Sixers can contend for a title.” Theoretically, it’s not a ridiculous claim. Reigning MVP Joel Embiid is a bona fide superstar at both ends. Nick Nurse is a championship coach. Tyrese Maxey is poised for a star turn. And free-agent-to-be Tobias Harris spent the summer poring over blueprints and schematics in preparation for his next heist. And yet…
There are just so many reasons to doubt this team. Well, one huge one, mainly: James Harden. On the plus side, Harden is coming off a season in which he averaged 21 points and led the NBA with 10.7 assists per game and created one of the league’s most devastating duos with Embiid when both were healthy and Harden was bought in. Unfortunately, Harden is no longer bought in.
After skipping media day, Harden rolled into Sixers’ camp. This temporarily suggested that, after a summer spent taking a blowtorch to every bridge in Philly, he might be willing to figuratively and literally play ball. He was not.
After taking part in a single five-on-five live session, Harden has skipped shootarounds, not attended preseason games, and now appears to have simply left the team. It’s tough to imagine it’s not over for Harden in Philly.
At the time of writing trade talks with the Clippers are ongoing. For now, the Clippers are unwilling to satisfy Daryl Morey’s highwater-mark demand of two future firsts and Terrance Mann. And frankly, why should they?
Then there’s the issue of Embiid. It’s tough to imagine that in the midst of this fiasco, on the heels of the underwhelming Doc Rivers era and the protracted Ben Simmons saga that both led to Jimmy Butler’s exit and Harden’s acquisition, Embiid is not at least contemplating a future outside of Philly.
The Sixers are being treated like a bottom-of-the-top-tier team. Given their on-court trajectory and horrific off-court vibes, they feel more likely to fall out of that tier with under 48.5 wins than to exceed expectations.
Miami Heat
Last season: 44-38; lost NBA Finals to Nuggets (4-1)
Opened: 48.5
Current: 45
What a trainwreck.
Last season, after having posted the best record in the East in 2021-22, the Heat scuffled through the regular season and landed in the play-in. After losing to the Hawks in the first play-in round, Miami, despite an unimpressive showing, topped the Bulls to capture the #8 seed. Then the joyride began.
The Heat cruised past the top-seeded Bucks in five, beat the Knicks in six, and outlasted the Celtics in seven to become the second #8 seed ever to reach the Finals. Unfortunately, Miami’s summer nightmare didn’t begin until after the Nuggets put the finishing touches on their gentleman’s.
The Heat spent the summer acting as though a trade for Damian Lillard was their birthright. Along the way, they missed out on the chance to nab Bradley Beal from the Wizards, allowed two major contributors, Gabe Vincent and Max Strus, to walk in free agency, and then, once Dame was finally dealt, failed to trade for Jrue Holiday. All the while, their fans and media cheerleaders made performance art out of undignified whining.
Now, Jimmy Butler is 34, Tyler Herro is pissed - both because of the Heat’s incessant attempts to trade him and because no one seems to want him all that much - and the supporting cast consists of soon-to-be-38-year-old Kyle Lowry, Josh Richardson, Duncan Robinson, and rookies Nikola Jovic and Jaime Jaquez Jr. This team is not winning 46+ games.
New York Knicks
Last season: 47-35; lost in conference semifinals the to Heat (4-2)
Opened: 43.5
Current: 45.5
The Knicks are back and they look a lot like they did last year. That may be nightmare fuel for generations of Knicks fans. These days, though? On the heels of one of the best seasons at MSG in a quarter century? That’s great!
The ‘22-’23 Knicks ranked third in the NBA in offensive efficiency, posted a top-ten net rating, and won 20 of 30 to finish the regular season. Eight of those wins came by at least 14 points. Only one of those losses came by double digits.
In their second playoff appearance in a decade, the Knicks thumped the favored Cavs in five and took the eventual conference champion Heat to six - and had legitimate chances to steal Games 4 and 6 in Miami.
So, yeah, continuity makes sense.
According to Thibs, the starting five that ended last season - Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, RJ Barrett, Mitchell Robinson, and Quentin Grimes - will start this one, with Immanuel Quickley, Josh Hart, Donte DiVincenzo, and Isaiah Hartenstein rounding out the rotation.
The starting five played fantastically as a unit last season, with Brunson and Randle as headliners and Robinson in the middle. This group will take another step forward if Grimes shows he’s more the dude who averaged 22 points on under 15 shots over the regular season’s last nine games and not the dude who, even before sitting with a shoulder injury, made 25% of his shots in Games 1-3 against the Cavs. Quickley could be a similar ceiling-raiser if he’s a reasonable facsimile of the guy who averaged 27 and made over 46% of his triples in the final eight games of the regular season.
Now, there is a conversation to be had about RJ Barrett and his rather chilly relationship with efficiency (.043 Win Shares/48). Given the chemistry and production of the starting unit with Barrett on the floor, we can… maybe punt on that chat for now?
It’s like only a temporary moratorium since, given their stockpiles of draft capital and on-court talent, the Knicks will be “in on” any future disgruntled superstars. Unless Barrett is a completely different player at that point, his name will be “bandied,” early and often.
Regardless, this team has an excellent core, quality depth, solid coaching, and promises to be really good once again. Like, 48-50 wins good.
Atlanta Hawks
Last season: 41-41; lost in the first round of the playoffs to Celtics (4-2)
Opened: 42.5
Current: 41.5
The lower profile, lower stakes Sixers.
In the two seasons since their surprise run to the conference finals in 2021, the Hawks have finished outside the East’s top eight twice, with 41 and 43 regular season wins, and only scraped into the playoffs, each time as the eighth seed, via the play-in. They deserve credit for turning what looked like a nailed-on sweep at the hands of the Celtics last spring into a six-game series. But that’s about where the good vibes run out.
In Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, Clint Capela, and Saddiq Bey, there's certainly talent on this roster. What's less clear, however, is whether there’s an actual foundation in place.
At the helm is Quin Snyder, who took over last season with 21 regular games left (the Hawks went 10-11). His plan for this offense involves more motion and more of the ball in hands other than Young’s. That’s the main question here: how well - or even if - one of the NBA’s most heliocentric stars will adjust to working more off-ball. If Young is unable or unwilling, this situation will deteriorate quickly and he will be the next star “in play.” In that scenario, the roster will likely be stripped down to stock up for the next rebuild.
Even if the situation doesn’t devolve, there's not really anything here to suggest that this team is poised to win more than half its games.
Brooklyn Nets
Last season: 45-37; lost in the first round of the playoffs to 76ers (4-0)
Opened: 37.5
Current: 37.5
The Nets had two different seasons in 2022-23. They came out of it a decent team with a deceptively good record.
Prior to trading Kevin Durant on February 9 (Kyrie Irving was dealt on February 6), the Nets had a 32-22 record and were dark-horse contenders in the East. After dealing Durant to Phoenix for Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, and picks, they won just 13 of 28. In the playoffs, they blew multiple second half leads and were sent home in a sweep by the Sixers.
The 2023-24 roster is a fascinating collection. Bridges and Johnson are back, as are Nic Claxton, Spencer Dinwiddie, Cam Thomas, and Dorian Finney-Smith. Joining them are newcomers Lonnie Walker IV, Dennis Smith, Jr., and Darius Bazley, along with draftees Noah Clowney, Dariq Whitehead, and Jalen Wilson.
Then, of course, there’s one of the modern NBA’s great mysteries: what is Ben Simmons now?
Simmons says he’s fully healthy and eager to get back on the court. For what it’s worth, he has looked more assertive in limited preseason action. There’s a competent NBA rotation in place here. Even a lesser version of the All-NBA player Simmons once was will make this team a tough out. And, with the Nets’ 2024 first-rounder belonging to Houston, there’s no upside to losing.
I think they wind up right near this 37.5 total. They could top it but, given the wide range of possible outcomes for Simmons makes that far from a guarantee.
Chicago Bulls
Last season: 40-42; lost in play-in to Heat
Opened: 37.5
Current: 37.5
I don’t know what’s going on here. This is either a wildly optimistic team that fancies itself competitive and yet, while in need of 3-point shooting, drafted a guy (Julian Phillips) who made less than a quarter of his college 3’s last year.
Otherwise, this is an underwhelming team that simply kicked the can on an inevitable reset. No meaningful attempt was made to deal Zach LaVine (of whom I’m an appreciator) or 34-year-old DeMar DeRozan. In fact, the team added Torrey Craig and, even more inexplicably, extended Nikola Vučević for three years and $60 million.
There is no way this team ends this season looking like they do now. DeRozan is entering the last year of his contract. He’s a lock to move. From there, there’s no point in hanging on to LaVine and Vučević - whose contract is not a disaster in a vacuum but makes zero sense on this team.
Even at its best, this is a mediocre team that would struggle to win 38 games. Start stripping it down and there’s no way.
Toronto Raptors
Last season: 41-41; lost in play-in to Bulls
Opened: 37.5
Current: 37.5
A less sad version of the Bulls. But a team in flux all the same.
Fred VanVleet is gone. And Masai Ujiri has said that neither Pascal Siakam nor OG Anunoby (both a year from free agency) is untouchable. And they shouldn’t be.
That’s nothing against their ability. Each would be an asset to any contender. But the Raptors, as currently constructed, around Siakam, Anunoby, 2021-22 Rookie of the Scottie Barnes (who regressed last season) and Gary Trent, Jr., have no discernible path to contention.
My assumption is that Ujiri is not content wallowing in the middle of the pack. Siakam and Anunoby would net a nice return that he can use, along with the team’s own draft capital, to try and build around Barnes (a nice player but, I dare say, a tad overrated) and rookie sharpshooter Gradey Dick.
Like the Bulls, the Raps best-case scenario is probably not much better than about 40 wins. This doesn’t feel like a “best-case scenario” team. I don’t see 38+ wins this season.
Indiana Pacers
Last season: 35-47; missed postseason
Opened: 35.5
Current: 38.5
There’s an intriguing and talented backbone to this roster. They’ve got a young potential star on the wing in Bennedict Mathurin. They’ve otherwise got a good bit of young talent in #8 overall pick Jarace Walker, the 2020 draft’s #10 overall pick Jalen Smith, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Isaiah Jackson, and Obi Toppin. They’ve got quality veterans in Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, T.J. McConnell, Daniel Theis, and newly-crowned champ Bruce Brown. And, with Turner, Smith, Jackson, Theis, and Walker, they’re absolutely loaded up front.
All this, and we’re only just getting to Tyrese Haliburton, a silky smooth efficiency monster who averaged 20.7 points and 10.4 assists per game last year.
You can win like this. If you’ve got a superstar, you can win big.
Barring a crazy leap from Mathurin, that would require Haliburton, currently a bona fide star, to play at an even higher level. I suspect he’s capable of it. Regardless, this is a really fun team, with the energy, athleticism, and talent to top 38.5 wins.
Orlando Magic
Last season: 34-48; missed postseason
Opened: 35.5
Current: 37.5
There’s something taking shape in Orlando!
For reasons I properly can't articulate, several attempts to write a simple blurb about the 2023-24 Orlando Magic have devolved into a fucking nightmare. Let’s try this again!
There's a lot at play with this team - lots of moving parts, plenty of cause for optimism, but also some issues to address.
On the bright side, Jamahl Mosley is pretty clearly an excellent coach. The rotation goes ten deep with top-18 picks, seven of whom were selected in the top eight. And the 2022-23 season showed that this group really has something about it.
After an awful 5-20 start, during which they ranked near the bottom of the NBA defensively, the Magic bounced back spectacularly, ranking sixth in the league on D and winning more than half of their games (29-28) to finish the season 34-48 - 12 wins better than in 2021-22! The makings of a great defense are in place here, with Wendell Carter Jr. and (assuming he’s healthy) Jonathan Isaac in the paint, and Markelle Fultz, Jalen Suggs, and #6 overall pick, point guard Anthony Black on-ball on the perimeter.
There's also cause for optimism at the other end. There’s a potentially excellent front line in place with Carter (15.3 and 8.7, with 62.4% true shooting), star-in-waiting and FIBA World Cup champion Franz Wagner (18, 4 rebounds, 3.5 assists), and Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero (20 points, 6.9 boards, 3.7 assists, and 7.4 free throw attempts per game) leading the way.
Efficiency, however, is an issue. Last season, the Magic ranked 26th in offensive rating, 22nd in true shooting, and had the NBA’s fourth-highest turnover rate (13.4%). On a related note, Banchero only made 42.7% of his field goals, less than 30% of his 3s, and had a 12.8% turnover rate - in practical terms, he turned the ball over nearly three times per game. For this team to break out of the muddled middle and eye contender status, Banchero and Wagner will need to spearhead a teamwide improvement in offensive efficiency.
Even as the Magic remain a work in progress, the sheer volume of young, high-pedigree talent, working with an excellent young coach, should have this team winning more than it loses… and blowing past 37.5 wins.
Charlotte Hornets
Last season: 27-55; missed postseason
Opened: 31.5
Current:31.5
Detroit Pistons
Last season: 17-65; missed postseason
Opened: 27.5
Current: 28
In many ways, the Pistons are a lesser version of the Magic. This is another team trying to build around a recent #1 overall pick with a roster packed with an intriguing blend of highly-drafted youth (Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart, and former #2 overall picks James Wiseman and Marvin Bagley III, and the #5 overall pick is the most recent draft, Ausar Thompson) and experience (Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, Joe Harris, Monte Morris). The Detroit Pistons have a real rotation!
However, where the Magic have more than half a season's worth of proof of concept, the Pistons - and new, minted head coach Monty Williams - are still trying to figure out who their “guys” are - and just how good those guys are.
It all starts with that aforementioned #1 overall pick, Cade Cunningham. When he’s been healthy Cunningham has put up numbers, averaging 17.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.6 assists. Though the consistency has yet to come, when healthy, he has frequently looked the part of a star lead guard. Cunningham has also used his length and strength (6’6”-220 with a seven-foot wingspan) to be a net positive on defense, where he’s averaged 1.2 steals per game and racked up 1.9 Defensive Win Shares in 64 games as a rookie. Unfortunately, he’s yet to put together a sustained run of health, having played in 76 of 162 possible regular season games since entering the NBA, including just twelve last season.
It’s also worth mentioning that he’s struggled terribly with efficiency, with a field goal percentage of 41.6%, a 3-point percentage of 30.9%, sub-50% true shooting, and a turnover rate of 16.8% (3.6/game). For context, the two worst teams in terms of TO% last season, the Warriors and the Rockets, came in right around 14%.
The primary objective for this season is to keep Cunningham healthy enough to assess whether he’s got genuine superstar potential. Not far behind is figuring out if/the extent(s) to which Ivey, Duren, and Thompson are foundational pieces. For the Pistons to escape the doldrums, one of their young blue-chippers must step up as a go-to star.
If everyone stays healthy, this team could offer up some Orlando-esque optimism by season's end. That’s far from guaranteed, of course. In fact, there's just too much about this team that’s unproven and unknown to bank on them winning a third of their games.
Washington Wizards
Last season: 35-47; missed postseason
Opened: 24.5
Current: 24.5
I hate that is going to sound as mean as it’s going to sound but the 2023-24 Wizards are genuinely one of the least interesting NBA teams I’ve ever contemplated.
Once there is actual basketball happening, the giggly “Man, Jordan Poole is gonna EAT!” conversation will die down alarmingly quickly.
Otherwise, Tyus Jones is a very nice player, but a needle-mover he is not.
“Who is Bilal Coulibaly and what is his deal beyond ‘former-Wemby teammate?’” may be worth a watch. Also, Johnny Davis was selected tenth overall out of Wisconsin.
Landry Shamet and Danilo Gallinari are also apparently here, as is Warriors 2022 first-rounder Patrick Baldwin Jr.
I dunno.
I remain eternally grateful to Kyle Kuzma for his contributions to the Lakers’ seventeenth title. So, y’know, there’s that!
Stay tuned for the Reading Between the Lines 2023-24 Western Conference Preview in a few days!