Reading Between the Lines - 2024-25 NBA Eastern Conference Preview
I got the ball (re)rolling here yesterday with a scattershot display of introspection and takery. It's time now for something a little more focused and timely. Thus, as I did a year ago, I’m tipping off this NBA season (a day or two late, but whatever) as I did last season, with “Reading Between the Lines.”
Let's be honest. I could patronize you and lay out what this is, how it works, and explain over-unders and season win totals to you. If you’re here, though, chances are you’re a sports fan in the good ol’ US of A in the year of someone's asleep-at-the-wheel Lord, 2024. You need sports betting tutorials these days like you need… you know, these are fraught times. Suffice it to say you probably don’t need this explained to you.
So let's just get to it, huh?
In the interest of keeping the teams mentioned here on as equal a footing as possible, today I’m going with the Eastern Conference, where everyone but the Washington Wizards has played a game.
Atlanta Hawks
Last season: 36-46; Lost in first play-in round vs. Bulls
‘24-’25 O/U: 36.5
The Hawks dealt away the wrong point guard, got very little present-day help in return, and will likely be awful defensively. It’s not that there’s no talent on the roster, but there’s just nothing to get excited about. This season will bring well under 36.5 wins and the end of the Trae Young era in Atlanta.
Boston Celtics
Last season: 64-18; Won NBA Finals vs. Mavericks (4-1)
‘24-’25 O/U: 58.5
Everyone of consequence returns for the reigning champs. Even with Kristaps Porzingis out until at least December, it’s tough to imagine a team that dominated like this one did losing a third of its games (which would be a 55-27 record). At the same time, another 60-win season may be a tall order. Look for a slight under, with 56-58 wins.
Brooklyn Nets
Last season: 32-50, Missed playoffs
‘24-’25 O/U: 19.5
This roster features about a half-dozen guys who, in the right situation, could be excellent role players. Unfortunately, barring the most astounding individual turnaround in recent history by Ben Simmons, there’s not a true headliner to be found here. So, the goals for the season ought to be getting a decent haul for Nic Claxton and winning fewer than 19.5 games.
Charlotte Hornets
Last season: 21-61; Missed playoffs
‘24-’25 O/U: 30.5
LaMelo Ball, when healthy, is a game-changer, Brandon Miller looks legit, there are real NBA players filling out the rotation, and, by all accounts, Charles Lee should be a good coach. In a potentially bottom-heavy Eastern Conference where every contender (save Boston) has questions, that should be good enough to win two out of every five and top 30 victories.
Chicago Bulls
Last season: 39-43; Lost in second play-in round vs. Heat
‘24-’25 O/U: 27.5
It’s crazy that we have to do this shit again with this team. I’m thrilled that Lonzo is returning and wish him nothing but the best. If he, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vučević, and Coby White all stay mostly healthy, it’s tough to see this as much more than a 32-34-win team. That simply can’t remain the plan. They’ve got to tear this thing down, win far fewer than 27.5 games, and look to a new, less depressing era.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Last season: 48-34; Lost in conference semifinals vs. Celtics (4-1)
‘24-’25 O/U: 48.5
Despite the redundancies both up front with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen) and in the backcourt with Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, there’s enough shooting, playmaking, and defense here to win three out of every five games. How this all translates to the postseason remains to be seen, but it’s not hard to see this team racking up more than 48 regular season wins.
Detroit Pistons
Last season: 14-68; missed playoffs
‘24-’25 O/U: 25.5
While taking the under on the Pistons a year ago, I offered the following: “If everyone stays healthy, this team could offer up some Orlando-esque optimism by season's end.” Real incisive, #basketballknower shit.
Despite mountains of tangible evidence to the contrary, I’m going back to the well. I still see the bones of a decent NBA team in Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren, Ausar Thompson, Isaiah Stewart, and Jaden Ivey. Tobias Harris, Tim Hardaway, Jr., and Malik Beasley are solid, productive veterans. And #5 overall pick Ron Holland II — who I am totally aware of (now) — seems intriguing. Largely out of genuine conviction and partly out of contrarianism, I’m taking the Piston to win at least 26 games.
Indiana Pacers
Last season: 47-35; Lost in conference finals vs. Celtics (4-0)
‘24-’25 O/U: 46.5
There’s really a ton of talent here. Tyrese Haliburton is more or less the platonic ideal of a point guard. Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, and Myles Turner round out a hell of a starting five. And T.J. McConnell, Benn Mathurin, Obi Toppin, and Jarace Walker are pretty solid support off the bench. And the whole thing feels coherent. With Siakam around from the start of the season, I expect a step forward — maybe not ‘23-’24 OKC level, but certainly good for 47+ wins.
Miami Heat
Last season: 46-36; Lost in first round vs. Celtics (4-1)
‘24-’25 O/U: 44.5
I’m assuming Jimmy Butler gets dealt at some point this season. I am also assuming that, while the Heat will get some help-now talent in return, it will not come close to compensating for Butler’s loss. However awesome Bam Adebayo may be (quite), the remaining rotation of Tyler Herro, Terry Rozier, Duncan Robinson, Nikola Jović (I guess), Alec Burks, and Thomas Bryant, while competent, doesn’t fill me with confidence. I look forward to Spo, Bam, and Co. making me look like a fool next spring, but I’m going under 44.5.
(I did not forget Jaime Jacquez, Jr. Through NO fault of his, I remain in a weird place with him right now. For reasons I struggle to clearly identify, he reminds me of a rather gangly and uncoordinated friend I played ball with years ago. As a result, I am genuinely surprised every time he does a skillful or cool basketball thing. I will clear that mental block this season.)
Milwaukee Bucks
Last season: 49-33; Lost in first round vs. Pacers (4-2)
‘24-’25 O/U: 49.5
I still believe staunchly in the Giannis-Dame pairing. If the pair can stay reasonably healthy all season, almost regalrdless of whatever else happens, 50+ wins is a lock.
A return to inner circle contention, on the other hand, is a far trickier proposition. That calls for reasonable health from not just Giannis and Dame but also Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez (yikes), positive contributions from Taurean Prince, somehow-still-only-25 Gary Trent, Jr., Marshon Beauchamp, and Bobby Portis (not at all unreasonable), and Doc Rivers holding a squad together when the heat is on…
That, my friends, is a hell of a parlay to bet.
New York Knicks
Last season: 50-32; Lost in the conference semifinals vs. Pacers (4-3)
‘24-’25 O/U: 54.5
I touched on this while take-dumping yesterday, but I am pretty emphatically in on this Knicks team.
Sure, the price to bring in Mikal Bridges was steep. So, too, in terms of both Donte DiVincenzo and about $160 million over the next three years ($221 million if he exercises a player option for 2027-28), was the cost of acquiring Karl-Anthony Towns. And yes, with Isaiah Hartenstein gone, until Mitchell Robinson’s healthy (I know…), KAT, Jericho Sims, and Precious Achiuwa will have to do some heavy defensive lifting.
At the same time, the KAT-Bridges-Josh Hart-OG Anunoby-Jalen Brunson lineup — and Deuce McBride and, to a lesser extent, Landry Shamet off the bench — will be deadly from the perimeter. Meanwhile, Bridges, Hart, and Anunoby will nullify most opposing perimeter attacks.
Combined with Brunson’s talismanic confidence and Tom Thibodeau’s propensity for running short rotations — typically presented as a negative — should put 55+ regular season wins very much on the table. The biggest problem, as it so often is, will be keeping some tread on the tires come playoff time.
Orlando Magic
Last season: 47-35; Lost in first round vs. Cavs (4-3)
‘24-’25 O/U: 47.5
If these guys can find any consistency on offense — they don’t even have to be prolific — a leap to 53-55 wins should be in the cards.
Paolo Banchero is a superstar in waiting. Jamahl Mosley is an outstanding coach. Franz Wagner, if he can put last season’s 28.1% atrocity from 3-point range behind him (3-of-6 in Game 1 is a nice start!) is an excellent secondary scorer. Wendell Carter Jr., Mo Wanger, Jonathan Isaac, and Goga Bitadze offer fantastic depth up front. Jalen Suggs is an elite perimeter defender, while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Gary Harris are solid veterans who offer size, strength, and shooting (and, in KCP’s case, championship experience) on the wings.
All that’s missing is consistent, productive point guard play. If they can swing a trade or cobble it together from what’s already on the roster — or, honestly, even if they can’t — these guys should blow past 48 wins.
Philadelphia 76ers
Last season: 47-35; Lost in first round vs. Knicks (4-2)
‘24-’25 O/U: 50.5
Barring moving on from Joel Embiid — which, whether or not it should, was never going to happen — the Sixers made the necessary all-in moves: they extended Embiid, signed Paul George for four years and $212 million, and added Eric Gordon, Caleb Martin, and Andre Drummond to the supporting cast.
Embiid, who only played 39 games last season will start the year at least 0-for-3 with a knee issue and is not going to play back-to-backs. Paul George missed the opener and will almost certainly load-manage the season. Guerschon Yabusele and whatever’s left of Kyle Lowry figure to figure quite prominently into proceedings here…
There’s nothing wrong with what the Sixers did this offseason. It also feels like the final, futile throes of an ill-fated era. Never mind picking this team to win it all, they’re not getting to 50 wins in the regular season.
Toronto Raptors
Last season: 25-57, Missed playoffs
‘24-’25 O/U: 29.5
I’ll level with you, I was just about to hit “publish” on this thing when I realized I’d completely overlooked the Raptors. Sooo…
With Siakam and Anunoby both gone, this is now fully a Scottie Barnes-led operation. That seems to mean more to most folks than it does to me. No disrespect, Barnes is an excellent player who bounced back nicely after regressing in ‘22-’23, but I really don’t see a “his team” foundational superstar there.
Elsewhere, there sure is a whole lotta stuff: Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Bruce Brown, Gradey Dick, Jakob Poeltl, Chris Boucher, Ochai Agbaji, Davion Mitchell, Kelly Olynyk…
I dunno. If this squad is healthy and pushing all season, 30+ wins is eminently doable. But then what? I imagine these guys give this season an earnest go for 50, maybe 55 games (injuries permitting), before packing it in for ping pong balls. UNDER.
Washington Wizards
Last season: 15-67, Missed playoffs
‘24-’25 O/U: 20.5
#1 overall pick Alex Sarr is here, so that should make for some viewing for a few weeks. And maybe Jordan Poo—
I can’t do this. In the name of my dignity and both of our time, I will simply refer you to last year’s preview for this team. Some names have changed. The sentiment has not.
Where the bookmakers found fodder for a 35% win total bump I will never know. UNDER.