Mea Culpas and Victories Laps — Re-Reading Between the Lines, Western Conference
Looking in on the goings-on in the NBA's Eastern Conference, a month (and a bit) into the 2024-25 season.
A week ago, I revisited the expectations I’d put forth a month prior for each of the NBA’s Eastern Conference teams in my latest Reading Between the Lines season preview. Now, a week later, and exactly a month to the day (give or take some hours) since looking ahead to the 2024025 season out West, it’s time to see what shakin’ with the dozen-team dogfight for the postseason.
Dallas Mavericks
The Call: OVER 49.5
As of November 30: 11-8 (+6.2 Net Rating; 7th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “Whether or not this team makes it back to the Finals (or even the conference finals), last year was no fluke.”
How Goes It? Though their record doesn’t fully reflect it, a full-strength Mavs team remains one of the NBA’s best. Maybe not “waltz back to the Finals” level, but firmly a second-tier contender.
They’re top-ten in both offensive (4th), defensive (7th), and net rating (above). Seven of their eight losses (and every one since October 26) have been by seven points or less. Five of those losses have come against the Sun, Rockets, Warriors, and Nuggets — that last one, by two points, required 37, 18, and 15 from Nikola Jokić. Just one of their losses (November 14 in Utah) came against a genuinely bad team — do what you will with the Pacers and Heat.
Luka Dončić (28.1, 7.6, 7.6, and 1.6 steals per game) and Kyrie Irving (24.5, 4.7, and 5.4, with a 46.6% 3-point percentage) remain devastating. Klay Thompson (obligatory), inconsistent and tailing off the past two weeks, has been “fine.” Free agent signee Naji Marshall has been a revelation, averaging 12 points on 55% from the field for the season, and 23 on 63% and 55.5% (10-of-18) from 3 in four games since Luka’s wrist injury. Despite a rough 31.3% hit rate on 3s, P.J. Washington is a decided positive thanks to his defense, rebounding (8.9 per), and finishing around the rim (78.4% on about 2.5 attempts per game). Daniel Gafford and Derrick Lively II remain the league’s best rim-running duo, with a combined 71.4% field goal percentage on 210 attempts. Spencer Dinwiddie can apparently still step in in a pinch…
They’ll need to get hot at some point to crack 50 wins again but, assuming Luka’s wrist doesn’t keep him out much longer, this remains one of the West’s most dangerous teams.
Denver Nuggets
The Call: OVER 51.5
As of November 30: 10-7 (+1.9 Net Rating; 11th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “I’m not in the business of doubting Nikola Jokić… At the same time, It’s tough to ignore just how much quality veteran depth this team has lost, with only theoretical or past-their-sell-by-date replacements… Let’s split the difference and call for 52 regular season wins and a pre-conference finals playoff exit.”
How Goes It? More than a month in, the Nugs are barely better than break-even. By “projected wins,” they’re not even that good. Jamal Murray’s shooting (41.5% overall and 32.6% from 3) is no better than Russell Westbrook’s (39.1% and 37.5%). Aaron Gordon is out indefinitely, On a related note, their defensive rating (114.7) has fallen from the top ten last season to 18th in the NBA and tied for the highest in franchise history, alongside a Paul Westhead team that prominently featured Michael Adams, Blair Rasmussen, and Orlando Woolridge.
On the whole? That’s more than a little disappointing.
On the bright side, Russ has rebounded from a brutal start and is 10-of-21 from deep over his last four. Michael Porter, Jr. has been excellent. Christian Braun (58% overall, 47.9% on 3s) has been fantastic. And, well…
What’s left to say about Nikola Jokić? The man’s won three of the past four MVP awards. The other year in that stretch, when he finished second, he should have won. Each of those years, he’s led the league in Win Shares, Offensive Win Shares (OWS), Win Shares/48, PER, Box Plus/Minus, Offensive Box Plus/Minus, and Value Over Replacement Player (VORP). The last three seasons, he’s also led the league in Defensive Box Plus/Minus. His worst marks on traditional stats during that time? 56.6% shooting, 24.5 points, 10.8 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 1.3 steals. WORST.
I’m not covering new ground here. It also may not come as news that this season, Jokić is better than ever. He’s averaging career-bests of 29.7 points, 10.6 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. His 13.1 rebounds per game mark leads the league. Until about a week ago, he also led in assists. He once again leads the league in total Win Shares, OWS, WS/48, PER, Box +/-, Offensive Box +/-, and VORP. He makes the Nuggets over 28 points better per 100 possessions. You may pedantically point out that the 56.8% shooting mark is about his worst since he started winning MVPs — to which I’d respond “Sure, but, despite having never shot even 40% from 3-point range, he’s making a league-high 53.4% of a career-high 4.1 triple tries per game.”
This team may well have the 43-23 run needed to get to 52 wins in it. There’s a bit that needs sorting out for this team to start winning two out of every three, escape the play-in zone, and legitimately contend. Will it get sorted? I don’t know. Maybe? I do know that it’s bad business to doubt a dude who nonchalantly does this.
Golden State Warriors
The Call: OVER 43.5
As of November 30: 12-6 (+7.1 Net Rating; 6th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “I am even less inclined to question Stephen Curry than I am Joker… As long as he’s healthy, the Dubs are in any game they play and… should have little trouble topping 43.5 wins.”
How Goes It? As delighted as I am (always, not just here) to be right, I didn’t expect this.
Steph is, of course, Steph. When he’s healthy, he’s imperious. Inevitable. And his gift for getting the most out of a squad is exceptional. None of that was the issue.
Neither was the Klay’s absence. Iconic and beloved though Captian Klay is, his contemporary on-court contribution is wholly replaceable. The thought of getting Klay’s current output from, say, Buddy Hield, hardly felt outlandish.
Plus, Steve Kerr was flush with options. Between Steph, Hield, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Kevon Looney, Kyle Anderson, Gary Payton II, and De'Anthony Melton, there is a trove of talent and high-end experience.
My biggest questions about this team were always “How does all of this fit together?” and “Can 35-year-old Draymond still be Draymond in a good way?”
To answer the second question first, holy shit, yes. In just over 28 minutes per game, Dray is averaging 8.6, 6.4, and 5.9, still playing excellent defense, and making 42% of his 3-pointers. Every bit as important, after years of struggles with on-court discipline and self-control, he has, by his standard, walked the straight and narrow this season. He’s started each of the Dubs’ 18 games, none of his four technical fouls thus far have cost the team at a key moment, and his lone ejection came when he was on the bench in the final minute of an already-decided game.
As for who would get minutes in possibly-too-deep rotation? Well, how about everyone?
In all, thirteen guys (everyone named above, plus Lindy Waters III, though Melton is out for the year after tearing his ACL early in November) are averaging between 12.1 (GP2) and 29.7 minutes (Steph; Dray and Wiggins are just behind) per game — and every one of them except Podziemski, who’s shooting a brutal 37%/19.7%, has a positive OWS and DWS.
How this deep a rotation plays in the postseason will remain an open question until the time comes. In the meantime, as long as Steph is around and Dray toes the good side of “the line,” this machine should keep humming along.
Houston Rockets
The Call: UNDER 43.5
As of November 30: 14-6 (+8.4 Net Rating; 4th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “There is a staggering number of legitimate NBA players and promising recent picks on this roster… In theory, that’s more than enough for a better-than-.500 record. And, for what it’s worth, these guys won 16 of 23 to close out last season. And yet…between guys trying to establish themselves, others looking for big paydays, and others still trying to play up to big contracts, a coherent and unified agenda on offense may be tough to come by.”
How Goes It? I’m not so much late on this Rockets team as I was dismissive of it initially. A couple of weeks ago, I grudgingly took notice. Then I started watching. This team is tough, intense, kinda weird, and fun as hell — everything Dillon Brooks has spent years trying to convince us he is.
In something of a reverse-Warriors setup — and thanks to excellent injury luck thus far — Ime Udoka has trotted out the same starting lineup — Brooks, Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, and Jabari Smith — in all but one of 20 games, and is deploying just two others, Amen Thompson and Tari Eason, for more than 12 (11.9 technically) minutes per game..This has effectively been a playoff rotation from the jump.
What’s odd is not so much their calling card: a tough and simultaneously aggressive yet
disciplined defense (#2 in the NBA) in which every one of those regulars — namely Eason, Thompson, Sengun, and VanVleet — has been a decided positive. It’s at the other end, where the team’s top perimeter scorer, Green, despite an awesome 41-point Thanksgiving Eve performance, is… actually not that good (39.4% FG, 31.7%, .083 WS/48, which is a career-best), three of their top four scorers are shooting under 41% from the field, and their top contributor of note from beyond the arc, at 476.5%, is, yup…
And not only does it keep working, it’s gaining steam.
Keep it weird, y’all.
Los Angeles Clippers
The Call: UNDER 35.5
As of November 30: 12-9 (+2.2 Net Rating; 10th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “Paul George is gone. Kawhi’s knee’s already got him on the shelf indefinitely. Barring a miraculous and sustainable recovery by Kawhi, this team will not sniff 35 wins.”
How Goes It? Put these guys in any other shirts (with the exception, I suppose, of green and white ones) and you’ve got a prime candidate for my “let's get weird” All-Star squad.
I mean, this is a defense-first team, without Kawhi Leonard, led in minutes not just by James Harden, but a James Harden that’s making less than two out of every five shots, barley a third of his 3s (34.2%), and giving back more than half of his impressive 8.7 assists per game via 4.4 turnovers.
Their leading scorer, thanks to 3-point shooting (48.7%) just to tick below his overall shooting (49%), Norman Powell, at 23.3 per, hasn’t played in five games. They’ve otherwise got two guys averaging double figures. One of them, Ivica Zuba (15.6 and 12.4, 60% FG), is a legitimate anchor at both ends of the floor, whom I still miss.
Ugh. Mike fucking Musca—
Derrick Jones, Jr. is the other, at 10.7 per game. Amir Coffey (9.5) is close…
HOW IS THIS A GOOD TEAM??
This could be a fun and odd “little engine that could” tribute act.
If you are veering this way, I’d urge caution, primarily because this outfit decided Kevin Porter, Jr. was deserving of another chance, but also because…
(Though they will probably top 35 regular season wins.)
Los Angeles Lakers
The Call: OVER 43.5
As of November 30: 11-8 (-1.3 Net Rating; 19th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “This iteration of the LeBron-AD Lakers feels like the deepest, most talented, and most coherent since the title team in the Bubble… If you can’t slip on some rose-colored shades in the wake of a 2-0 start for the first time in a decade and a half, what the hell are you even doing?”
How Goes It? This, LeBron James’ seventh season in L.A. strangely, neatly sums up the Lakers’ LeBron Era.
You can’t really complain about the bottom line. A title, plus another conference finals appearance over four years would be the highwater mark for like two-thirds of the league. Since joining the Lakers in 2019, Anthony Davis has spearheaded a title run and averaged a tick under 25 and 11, plus more than two blocks and a steal per game. He is a bona fide Laker great.
And LeBron? Shit. 27, 8, and 8. Three top-eleven MVP finishes, including runner-up in 2019-20. Six All-Star and All-NBA selections. The title (if you want to discount it, go somewhere else). Keeping the all-time scoring crown Forum Blue and Gold. And generally restoring a significant measure of self-esteem to franchise that desperately needed it.
Over the course of a week earlier this month (November 8-15), he had as many consecutive triple-doubles (four) as Tracy McGrady and Tim Duncan each had in their careers. A month out from his 40th birthday, he’s putting up a line that’s only ever been achieved 13 times, by six different players (Jokić is going to make it 14) — including 20-17-18 Bron.
This season, the Lakers have a top-seven offense, are winning almost 60% of their games, and currently sit sixth in the West, a game-0and-a-half behind the Warriors in third, two games ahead of the Wolves in twelfth. All pretty good and not outlandish to have expected.
At the same time — and I’m probably not telling you anything you don’t know — the rest of it has never felt fully focused or coherent as it’s happened.
Each of those deep playoff runs was sandwiched between a first-round exit and a postseason absence. Despite his objectively spectacular numbers, in the four completed seasons since his first as a Laker, when he finished third in MVP voting and made First Team All-NBA, AD’s had a pair of All-Star appearances, without a single All-NBA selection or down-ballot MVP finish.
This season, the only thing that suggests this team is any good is the fact that they keep winning actual NBA games. Their net rating sits behind that of the Pistons, with the Nets and Hawks just behind them. Their defensive rating is better only than those of the Pacers, Nets, Pelicans, Bulls, Wizards, and Jazz. Their only win over a top-five team in either conference was a five-pointer in Memphis on November 13.
Over the past week, AD’s been merely excellent, rather than eye-watering MVP-caliber. This LeBron is more post-MVP Russ than Peak Oscar and Joker. The roster is deeply pockmarked. Jarred Vanderbilt and Christian Wood have yet to play. Gabe Vincent, Max Christie, Cam Reddish, and D’Angelo Russell have been awful. Documented dickhead Jaxson Hayes has played once since November 10. Before getting shelved he topped out at mediocre.
It may sound like I’m, I dunno, complaining, or otherwise out on this era or this team. I’m not. I do recognize that “there’s definitely good stuff.” LeBron remains the greatest marvel the game’s ever seen. Austin Reaves has not missed a game and, a couple of hiccups aside, has been rock solid. After a slow start, Dalton Knecht has been awesome the last nine games, averaging 19 and 5, and making 52.2% of his triple tries. Rui Hachimura has missed some time and struggled with consistency, but he’s been solid on the whole, averaging 12 and 5, and making almost 47% of his 3s.
I'm neither naive nor homerish enough to believe that the numbers underlying the first quarter of this Lakers season don't paint a potentially frightening picture. Whether it's guys getting hot, guys simply not playing terribly, a trade, or some combination thereof, something has to happen to solidify the footing under this team. For now, though, as long as the top four or five stay healthy — namely, LeBron and AD, of course — this feels like a team capable of grinding out enough wins to stay in the thick of the automatic playoff qualification race.
Memphis Grizzlies
The Call: UNDER 47.5
As of November 30: 13-7 (+8.1 Net Rating; 5th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “There is an awful lot banking on a successful and full return from Ja Morant. And rightly so… There are, however, also reasons why that return might not be seamless and immediate. For starters, as great as he is, he [Ja] has played a total of ten competitive games since April 28, 2023. Even before irreverent Instagramming ended his 2023-24 season in January after just nine games, injuries had cost him 45 games over the previous two seasons…. There are likely to be some growing pains that keep the Grizz under 47.5 wins.”
How Goes It?
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Call: UNDER 52.5
As of November 30: 9-10 (+0.8 Net Rating; 13th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “Awesome though he is, Anthony Edwards is not yet a 22-year-old T-Mac, let alone Mike or Kobe. He needs clean driving lanes to be at his best. An outstanding second game of the season notwithstanding, Julius Randle’s ball-stopping and inability to consistently space the floor [as opposed to Karl-Anthony Towns’s abilities to do precisely that], especially with Rudy Gobert clogging the lane, could be a major issue."
How Goes It? Imagine having a Rudy Gobert conundrum and a Karl-Anthony Towns conundrum. Imagine solving both, equaling the best season in franchise history, and looking toward this season with a copacetic big-man duo that perfectly complements your ascending superstar (and vice versa), and a deep roster that pretty beautifully complements all three. Now imagine willfully tearing all that down for no reason better than made-up financial constraints.
In a vacuum, Julius Randle (21.7, 6.7, and 4.1 assists) has been quite good for the Wolves. Unfortunately, the personality fit between him and Gorbert is not what Gobert — who’s averaging his fewest points since 201-5-16, his fewest rebounds since 2017-18, shooting at his worst clip since that ‘17-’18, and blocking fewer than two shots per game for just his second time in the NBA — enjoyed with KAT. And as has gone Rudy, so has gone Minny’s D, from top-of-league to middle-of-pack.
And,, more importantly, Anthony Edwards, while still spectacular and prolific (28.1 per game, 42.7% from 3), is getting far fewer of his shots at the rim (16.3% vs. 22.8% last year), in the lane (16% vs. 19.2%), and at the free throw line (22.6% FT Rate, down from 32.5%), while taking 52.2% of his shot from beyond the arc. Macro trends aside, that’s also a spacing issue.
New Orleans Pelicans
The Call: OVER 46.5
As of November 30: 4-16 (-12.1 Net Rating; 29th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “Adding Dejounte Murray to an already potentially awesome core featuring Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, Trey Murphy III (once he’s healthy in a couple of weeks), Herb Jones, Jose Alvarado, and 2023 first-rounder Jordan Hawkins, is an exciting proposition... If Zion can turn in a second straight mostly healthy season, this team will make a run at 50 wins.”
How Goes It? Murray hasn’t played since opening night. McCollum’s played once since October 29. Jose Alvarado is out for several weeks with a hamstring issue. Herb Jones is missing time with a shoulder injury. Murphy (left knee) and Hawkins (back) have both missed significant time this season. And Ingram (calf) has missed two of the last three.
Even with a healthy Zion Williamson, overcoming all that would be a tall order.
Sigh…
Now in focus is the five-year, $197 million contract extension Zion signed with the Pelicans in 2022, meant to start with the 2023-24 season. However, given Zion had only played 85 of a possible 246 regular season games to that point, the team loaded the deal with availability and conditioning incentives, which, if unmet, could void some the guarantees. Alas, Zion only took part in 29 games in ‘22-’23, removing the guarantees from the final three years of the contract (after this one).
Zion can apparently reinstate some of these guarantees by meeting certain performance milestone, including "specific weigh-in checkpoints." However, to to fully guarantee his 2025-26 salary, he’d need to play at least 61 games this season and pass six weigh-ins along the way. Three weeks ago, we learned that Zion, fresh off an impressive 29-point performance against the Cavs — just his sixth appearance of the season — would be “out indefinitely” with a hamstring injury.Then, about a week ago, Shams reported that Zion is apparently “not close to returning.”
Suffice it to say that Zion suiting up for 56 of the Pels’ remaining 62 games is, generally, the longest of long shots. Given the persistent questions about his conditioning and weight even at the best of times, a streak of six successful weigh-ins feels only marginally more feasible.
Soon after, news broke that Zion is “parting ways” with his representation at CAA.
So, how goes it??
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Call: OVER 57.5
As of November 30: 15-4 (+10.6 Net Rating; 2nd in the NBA)
Summed Up: “I cannot come up with a single reason why this team will not win at least 58 regular season games — and make a hell of a run at the whole thing.”
How Goes It? Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a perennial MVP candidate. Everyone who gets meaningful minutes for this team is a positive on D. Four current (so no Chet) rotation players — Aaron Wiggins, Lu Dort, Williams, and Isiaiah Joe — are hitting at least 36% of at 3.6 3s per game. SGA, who’s hitting 33.9% of 6.1 per game has a higher True Shooting (61.4%) than all of them. Despite their horrific struggles, it\’s reasonable to assume some bounceback from Cason Wallace (25.9%) and Alex Caruso (20.5%).
And Jalen Williams? My goodness. Williams (21.5, 6.3, 5.1, 2.2 steals, and basically 50-40-80 shooting) was deserving of an All-NBA spot before he stepped in spectacularly at starting center between Chet Holmgren’s pelvic fracture and Isaiah Hartenstein’s return. In four games since his debut for OKC, Hartenstein’s kicked in 14, 14, almost four assists, 2.5 steals, and made 57% of his shots. That’s quite the option to fall back on as you await the return (sometime this season, barring any setbacks; we should have an update in about 6 weeks) of your 7-foot-1 efficiency monster, who put up 18.2 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 2.9 blocks, and shot 40% percent from deep in nine fully healthy games this season.
This team is pretty terrifying as is. A little more from Caruso and Wallace and a healthy Chet in tow?
Phoenix Suns
The Call: UNDER 47.5
As of November 30: 10-8 (-1.2 Net Rating; 18th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “With optimal health and no unexpected declines for Kevin Durant (in Year 18), Bradley Beal (Year 13), or Jusuf Nurkic, this team could be very good in the regular season and potentially frightening in the playoffs. HOWEVER…
For a team this top-heavy, in a conference this stacked, with a pair of headliners (KD and Beal) who've turned in a combined one season of more than 60 games since 2019, 48+ wins feels rich.”
How Goes It? About as expected?
At anything close to full strength, this team looks fantastic. With at least two of their top three in action, the Suns jumped out to a 9-2 start that included two wins apiece over the Clippers and Mavs, and another over the Lakers. After five straight losses with only Devin Booker holding down the fort as Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal nursed calf injuries, Phoenix’s top trio reunited to paste the Lakers (127-100) in the NBA Cup. And the 10-point home loss to the Nets the following night? Eh, whaddya gonna do?
Completely healthy, this team looks like a title contender — a fragile one, perhaps, given the top-heaviness of the roster and regularity with which the headliners miss time, but a contender nonetheless. If the medical stars align and the core is intact come play-in/playoff time, these guys will pose problems.
The issue, of course, is that predicting that all three of these dudes will simultaneously be healthy five months from now is a fraught exercise. So, too, is predicting wins in 60% of their games over those five months.
Portland Trail Blazers
The Call: UNDER 21.5
As of November 30: 8-12 (-7.5 Net Rating; 26th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “This is not a good team. It is one that, through a combination of a lack of both depth and topline talent, will lose many more games than it wins. And yet, if you really squint, there’s kinda something here. Not a budding contender or even a surprise play-in team or anything, but one that, with some health and some reps together, could be a little spicy by the final third of the season.”
How Goes It? Alright, I suppose??
If, on opening night, you told Blazers fans that, a quarter of the way through the season, nine guys would be averaging at least 9 points per game and the Blazers would be leading the league in shot attmepts at the rim (31.3%) and sitting less than three games back of the West’s final play-in spot, they’d presumably be thrilled. And, frankly, they should be. Shaedon Sharpe looks like the real deal and the team has notched two wins apiece over the Clippers and Wolves, plus one in Houston, and, most recently, in an excellent showing, another at home over the Kings.
That said…
One of those nine 9-point scorers, Robert Williams III, has only played seven times this season and is now dealing with a concussion. Only one of the other eight, DeAndre Ayton, is shooting better than 43.2% from the field. Only Delano Banton (40% on 3.6 attempts per game) and Toumani Camara (36.6% on 4.1 attempts) is hitting 35%+ from deep, and their not making up for it elsewhere, converting just 62.7% (co-second-worst in the NBA) of their shots at the rim, while only getting to the line at the league-average rate, and ranking in the bottom-five on freebies.
The spark this team has shown through 20 games has been encouraging and fun. And there’s
every reason to believe that more green shoots will appear the rest of the way. That said, between their bottom-five net rating, bottom-two offensive rating, and the lack of either a clear pathway to efficient offense or an irreverent bucket-getter to wrestle away wins, this team looks a safe bet to regress — perhaps significantly. Given their current 32-ish-win pace, it wouldn't be surprising to see 22+ wins by season's end. Then again, it kinda wouldn't be surprising not to.
Sacramento Kings
The Call: UNDER 46.5
As of November 30: 9-11 (+0.4 Net Rating; 15th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “The Kings head into this season a good to very good not-quite-contender… like a more coherent and moderately less top-heavy version of the Suns… this team will wind up in the neighborhood of 47 wins and maybe even outplay its record.”
How Goes It? Mostly as predicted, but with worse results.
Each of the Kings’ top four of De’Aaron Fox, Keegan Murray, Domantas Sabonis, DeMar DeRozan is averaging between 36.3 and 37.8 minutes per game. Fox (27.7 per game) and DeRozan (22.6) are each shooting 50% from the field and averaging 4+ rebounds and assists, and 1.5 steals per game. Sabonis is averaging 20, 12.9, and 6.4 assists, while shooting 62.8% from the field and 42.2% from deep.
Murray is having a brutal time shooting the ball (41.4% and 27.8% on 3s), but is contributing on the glass (7.9 per game) and on defense, where he’s recorded at least one steal in eight straight games and at least one steal and one block in his last five. Helping offset things is Malik Monk, who’s averaging 15.1 points (35.6% on 3s) and almost 4 assists in roughly 27 minutes per game, and has erupted for 56 points (on 11-of-18 on 3s) and 18 assists over the last two.
Beyond that there’s little to speak of. Kevin Huerter s scoring 8.9 points per game but also shooting terribly (40.8%/27.7% on 3s). You’re got a little Keon Ellis (7.1 points on 43.8% from 3). And, apparently Jae Crownder (18 points over his first two games) is still around.
So, yeah, Fox is incredible. And DeRozan, now in his seventeenth season, will be a bucket until he chooses to be something else. And Sabonis is an ideal fulcrum and anchor. All that’s enough to power a solid net rating and an expected record that’s better than their actual one.
Murray’s (and, to a lesser extent, Huerter’s) struggles, a lack of meaningful depth, DeRozan missing time (five of the last eight games) with back issues, and a 2-6 record has Sacto’s sitting twelfth in the West, with a sub-.500 record.
Assuming Murray finds his footing before too long and the top of the roster steers clear of injuries, these guys should have a shot at a play-in spot. Att hi point, though, it’s tough to see a scenario in which this team approaches even 45 wins.
San Antonio Spurs
The Call: OVER 35.5
As of November 30: 10-9 (+0.2 Net Rating; 16th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “Though it’s coming off a second straight 22-60 season, but I look at Year 2 Wemby, Barnes and Vassell as options #2 and #3, the smart, solid rest of the core, quintessential “adult in the room” Chris Paul whipping the program into shape on the floor, and Gregg Popovich overseeing the whole thing, I am irrationally excited for this team.”
How Goes It? When everyone’s healthy — especially Pop — you can see the bones of a contender here.
Victor Wembanyama’s season line of 23.4, 10, 3.1 assists, and 3.6 blocks already has him in truly rarified air. Before sitting for three games with a knee contusion, he was flirting with his inevitable inevitability, with a four-game run of 34 points, 12.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 3.8 blocks per game, during which he made over 48% of 12.5 3-point attempts.
Chris Paul hasn’t missed a game, will forever be as smart as anyone in the league, and is averaging 10.6, 8.2 assists, and 1.4 steals in Year 20. He’s still from the floor (45.6%, 37.1% from 3), has dished out 8+ assists a dozen times, has seven double-doubles, and, unsurprisingly, a keen sense for how to get Wemby the ball:
When Wemby sat for three games a couple of weeks ago, Paul had 27 points and 21 assists in a pair of home wins over the Thunder and Jazz. Last offseason’s other veteran addition, Harrison Barnes, had 45 points, 18 rebounds, and made 7-of-12 triples during those games. In Wemby’s 21-point, 9-board, 3-block return, Barnes tallied 22 points on just eight shots in a 10-point win over the Warriors to wrap up Western Conference Player of the Week honors.
All the while, #4 overall Stephon Castle, after a quiet eight games to start his NBA career, has averaged 15.5 and 5.2 assists in his last 11, hitting 34.5% of his 3s, and providing Paul with an excellent backcourt running mate.
Devin Vassell, who missed the first nine games, returned for a solid four-game stretch, then missed another five, is back. He, Julian Champagnie, and Keldon Johnson — both of whom could stand to be more consistent, Champagnie with his outside shot and Johnson overall. TYhe trio should make for a nice wing trio in addition to Barnes — especially Johnson, who, as The Atheltic’s Kelly Iko points points out, along with Castle, represents the Spurs biggest paint threat (6.6 drives per game), as Wembanyama works to balance his affinity for the outside shot (9.3 of his 18.3 shot attempts per game are 3-pointers) with being an awesome threat aorund the rim.
There’s definitely some stuff to work through here, but once the gang is back together and settled, everything to love about this team entering the season remains in place.
Utah Jazz
The Call: UNDER 28.5
As of November 30: 4-14 (-9.9 Net Rating; 28th in the NBA)
Summed Up: “The Jazz enter this season in a familiar position: seemingly desperate to tank but seemingly too talented and well-coached to truly bottom out… Lauri Markkanen is under contract for another four years after this one, and neither he nor the team seem particularly inclined to part ways. The question is whether Danny Ainge and Will Hardy talk him into some aggressive load management or implement a team-wide tank around him.” `
How Goes It? You’d think a near-78% losing percentage, bottom-five marks at both ends, and the third-worst net rating would be enough for an inside track on a top-three pick. Alas, despite keeping their eyes locked on Danny Ainge’s prize, at the time of writing the Jazz are looking down (up??) at the Wizards, Sixers, and Pelicans in lottery odds.
