Reading Between the Lines - 2024-25 NBA Western Conference Preview

Happy NBA opening weekend, everyone!

A couple of days ago, as I did a year ago, I hit you with the Reading Between the Lines Eastern Conference Preview for this ‘24-’25 season. Today, back home in Barcelona, 90 minutes before El Clásico in Madrid, unlike a year ago, I give you the Western Conference Reading Between the Lines Preview — like, all of it!

The pedantic among you might harp on the lack of a clever preamble, or the fact that the NBA season is already four days old. To you all, I say: look, a year ago, upon completing 40% of the Western Conference, I vanished for a year. I'm clocking this as a win.

Enjoy!

Dallas Mavericks

Last season: 50-32; Lost NBA Finals vs. Celtics

‘24-’25 O/U: 49.5

Whether or not this team makes it back to the Finals (or even the conference finals), last year was no fluke. 

If Game 1 Klay is what the Mavs are getting, it will be another spectacular season in Dallas. Even with more tempered expectations, Klay is again running with elite playmakers in Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving, with solid two-way wing help in Maxi Kleber and P.J. Washington, the league’s best rim-running big-man pairing in Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively, and added depth in Quentin Grimes, Naji Marshall, Jaden Hardy, and Spencer Dinwiddie.

Another 50-plus-win season seems a solid bet.

Denver Nuggets

Last season: 57-25; Lost in the conference semifinals vs. Mavs (4-3)

‘24-’25 O/U: 51.5

I’m not in the business of doubting Nikola Jokić, especially when Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon are around and healthy. At the same time, It’s tough to ignore just how much quality veteran depth this team has lost (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bruce Brown, Jeff Green), with only theoretical (Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, Zeke Nnaji) or past-their-sell-by-dates veterans (Russ, Dario Šarić, DeAndre Jordan) to take their places.

Let’s split the difference and call for 52 regular season wins and a pre-conference finals playoff exit.

Golden State Warriors

Last season: 46-36; Lost in first play-in round vs. Kings

‘24-’25 O/U: 43.5

I am even less inclined to question Stephen Curry than I am Joker — especially when he’s still got Dray and is surrounded by such a diverse and useful supporting cast — Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Buddy Hield, Kyle Anderson, GP2, DeAnthony Melton, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Kevon Looney…

Obviously, everything hinges on Steph. As long as he’s healthy, the Dubs are in any game they play. And while few opponents will be as generous as the Blazers were in the season opener, this crew should have little trouble topping 43.5 wins.

Houston Rockets

Last season: 41-41; Missed playoffs

‘24-’25 O/U: 43.5

There is a staggering number of legitimate NBA players and promising recent picks on this roster: Fred VanVleet, Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams, Aaron Holiday, Jeff Green, Jae’Sean Tate, Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore, Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason…

In theory, that’s more than enough for a better-than-.500 record. And, for what it’s worth, these guys won 16 of 23 to close out last season. And yet…

The 11-game winning streak that powered their late-season surge came against (largely) middling competition — and on the heels of that run, the Rockets lost five straight against the Mavs (twice), Wolves, Warriors, and Heat. As for this year’s roster, between guys trying to establish themselves in the league, others looking for big paydays, and others still trying to play up to big contracts, a coherent and unified agenda on offense may be tough to come by. Not saying they’ll be bad, but 40-43 wins feels more likely than 44+ in a loaded West.

Los Angeles Clippers

Last season: 47-35; Lost in first round vs. Mavs (4-2)

‘24-’25 O/U: 35.5

Paul George is gone. Kawhi’s knee’s already got him on the shelf indefinitely. Though the Clips battled the Suns valiantly on Tuesday night, a 40-40 (minutes per game/usage) season from James Harden alongside Ivica Zubac, Norm Powell, Nic Batum, Amir Coffey, and Derrick

Jones Jr. is decidedly not a winning recipe in 2024-25. Barring a miraculous and sustainable recovery by Kawhi, this team will not sniff 35 wins.

Los Angeles Lakers

Last season: 47-35; Lost in first round vs. Nuggets (4-1)

‘24-’25 O/U: 43.5

With the benefit of having seen them play twice — and well — already, this iteration of the LeBron-AD Lakers feels like the deepest, most talented, and most coherent since the title team in the Bubble. I’ve had similar surges of optimism at points, only to be harshly introduced to reality by inconsistency and total inability to even tread water with LeBron off the floor.

That said, this group returns pretty much all of a deep and talented supporting cast (in which everyone roughly knows their place on the food chain), 2023 addition Gabe Vincent (who only played 11 games last season), and added an impact rookie in Dalton Knecht. Beyond the optimism about the roster, I do believe that JJ Redick knows what he’s doing and won’t be overwhelmed by the job.

Look, if you can’t slip on some rose-colored shades in the wake of a 2-0 start for the first time in a decade and a half, what the hell are you even doing? Plus, if we’re setting the same bar for the Houston hodgepodge — to say nothing of a higher bar for long-absent Ja Morant and a middling Grizzlies squad — I can’t see a synced-up version of this Lakers squad winning fewer than 44 games.

Memphis Grizzlies

Last season: 27-55, missed playoffs

‘24-’25 O/U: 47.5

There is an awful lot banking on a successful and full return from Ja Morant. And rightly so. Before IG idiocy paused his ascent to the league’s marquee and derailed the Grizzlies’ ‘23-’24 season, Ja was one of the NBA’s most spectacular and impactful players. There’s no reason why he can’t return to something close to his previous highs. 

There are, however, also reasons why that return might not be seamless and immediate. For starters, as great as he is, he’s played a total of ten competitive games since April 28, 2023. Also, even before irreverent posting ended his 2023-24 season on January 5, after just nine games, injuries had cost him 45 games over the previous two seasons. Compounding matter is the fact that a considerable chunk of his supporting cast — namely Jaren Jackson, Jr., GG Jackson II, and Luke Kennard — is already battling a variety of injuries. 

With all due respect to Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, and Zach Edey (apparently) all of that likely results in some growing pains that keep the Grizz under 47.5 wins.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Last season: 56-26, Lost conference finals vs. Mavs (4-1)

‘24-’25 O/U: 52.5

Conversations around Karl-Anthony Towns tend to focus on the things he is not. And, to be fair, his inconsistency on defense, proclivity for playing smaller than his size, and wavering focus have kept him from maxing out his awesome potential. And, to the extent that such things matter, his emotional makeup has kept him from becoming a true #1 in the NBA. 

Do you know what role KAT is perfectly suited for? That of a second (or even third) star on a team with a gifted perimeter scorer with a powerful personality, helping to create massive driving lanes with his historically prolific outside touch. That loss will be glaring in Minny this season.

Awesome though he is, Anthony Edwards is not yet a 22-year-old T-Mac, let alone Mike. He needs clean driving lanes to be at his best. An outstanding second game of the season notwithstanding, Julius Randle’s ball-stopping and inability to consistently space the floor, especially with Rudy Gobert clogging the lane, could be a major issue. And, as I’ve said before in a different context about Trae Young, he’s not good enough at what he’s good at to be a major factor on a great team. And while Donte DiVincenzo will make up some of that outside shooting loss and provide defense and playmaking, he cannot pick up that particular bit of slack.

This team should once again be good but, with the pressure to contend ratcheting up and all but two, maybe three teams in the West capable of not only reaching the playoffs but making some noise once there, I don’t see a second straight 53-plus-win season for the Wolves.

New Orleans Pelicans

Last season: 49-33; Lost in first round vs. Thunder (4-0)

‘24-’25 O/U: 46.5

I am decidedly higher on Dejounte Murray than most, and I love him here. Adding Murray to an already potentially awesome offense featuring Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram (as long as he’s here), CJ McCollum, Trey Murphy III (once he’s healthy in a couple of weeks), and 2023 first-rounder (#14 overall) Jordan Hawkins, is an exciting proposition. And at the other end, the defensive combination of Murray, Herb Jones, and Jose Alvarado could be a nightmare for opposing guards 

The Pels could get dinged during the season for a lack of depth up front (though Yves Missi certainly is intriguing), but if we’re talking about make-or-break concerns for this group, there’s really only one: Zion’s health. If Zion can turn in a second straight mostly healthy season (he played 70 games in ‘23-’24), this team will top 46.5 and make a run at 50 wins.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Last season: 57-25; lost conference semifinals vs. Mavs (4-2)

‘24-’25 O/U: 57.5

Don’t let the brevity of this write-up fool you. As I was a year ago, I am all in on the Thunder. 

Coming off a 57-win season, this team brings back all of the best and deepest young core in the NBA, led by at least one, maybe two All-NBA and perhaps MVP-level talents, a perfectly cast third star in Jalen Williams, a defensive monster in Lu Dort, and a pair of excellent outside shooters in Isaiah Joe and Cason Wallace. To that this summer, they added another elite perimeter defender in Alex Caruso and — once he returns from a broken hand, probably in December — another excellent center in Isaiah Hartenstein.

I cannot come up with a single reason why this team will not win at least 58 regular season games — and make a hell of a run at the whole thing.

Phoenix Suns

Last season: 49-33; Lost in first round vs. Timberwolves (4-0)

‘24-’25 O/U: 47.5

The names on the fringes have changed, but the question here remains the same: Just how far can a thin squad built around a quickly going-out-of-fashion three-headed perimeter monster go in a positively stacked conference? 

Now, it is worth noting that thanks to Tyus Jones and Jusuf Nurkić, the Suns’ starting five - offensively, at least — should once again be one of the NBA’s best. Thankfully for Mike Budenholzer Jones and Nurk are solid-to-good defenders, since Kevin Durant is unfortunately not what he once was on that end. As for Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, while they’ve not really fallen off defensively, neither was all that good to begin with.   Beyond that first unit, however, things get dicey, as none of Monte Morris, Ryan Dunn, Grayson, Allen, Josh Okogie, or Mason, Plumlee moves the needle sufficiently at either end.

With optimal health and no unexpected declines for KD (in Year 18), Beal (Year 13), or Nurk, this team could be very good in the regular season and potentially frightening in the playoffs. HOWEVER…

For a team this top-heavy, in a conference this stacked, with a pair of headliners (KD and Beal) who've turned in a combined one season of more than 60 games since 2019, 48+ wins feels rich.

Portland Trail Blazers

Last season: 21-61, missed playoffs

‘24-’25 O/U: 21.5

I’m still bullish on Scoot Henderson. Anfernee Simons is very good. Shaedon Sharpe is spectacular and has star potential. Whatever you think of their contracts, DeAndre Ayton and Jerami Grant are good NBA players. Matisse Thybulle and Robert Williams III are excellent veteran defenders. Toumani Camara could be interesting…

This is not a good team. It is one that, through a combination of a lack of both depth and topline talent, will lose many more games than it wins. And yet, if you really squint, there’s kinda something here. Not a budding contender or even a surprise play-in team or anything, but one that, with some health — admittedly a pretty major caveat, as Sharpe (shoulder), Thybulle (knee), and Williams (hamstring) are all currently out — and some reps together, could be a little spicy by the final third of the season.

I really wanted to pick the Blazers to win more than 21.5 games but, given their injuries and lack of an experienced floor general, I can’t fully get there. Gonna cop out and say that they get close but fall a bit shy of 22 wins.

Sacramento Kings

Last season: 46-36; Lost in second play-in round vs. Pelicans

‘24-’25 O/U: 46.5

The Kings head into this season a good to very good not-quite-contender. In some ways, they feel like a more coherent and moderately less top-heavy version of the Suns, with a top five of De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Keegan Murray, Malik Monk, and newly-acquired DeMar DeRozan.

In a vacuum, that's not terrible. In a loaded Western Conference like we have here, however, it may only be enough to ensure a spot in the play-in. Of course, if Fox and DeRozan, Fox, and Monk can continue conjuring up fourth quarter magic, this solidly good team could aspire to something more. 

If I had to guess, I’d say that this team will be just fine and wind up in the neighborhood of 47 wins, and maybe even outplay their record. HOWEVER, given the competition around them, it’s more likely they fall a win or two short.

San Antonio Spurs

Last season: 22-60, missed playoffs

‘24-’25 O/U: 35.5

I am irrationally excited for this team. Of course, it all begins and ends with Victor Wembanyama. I mean…

… but I’m not going to belabor that point with a medley of superlatives and “holy shits.” You watch ball. You know the deal.

The thing is, I kinda liked this team in pre-Wemby ‘22-’23. Now?

Jeremy Sochan no longer has to putz around at the point. Once Devin Vassell (foot; out at least another week) is back and up to speed, Julian Champagnie gets to be an overqualified fourth or fifth option. Keldon Johnson isn’t as good as I thought he’d wind up being a couple of years ago, but he’s solidly useful. A now-healthy Zac Collins should provide depth and moderate production up front. Assuming a spot near the top of the food chain and providing some valuable veteran guidance is Harrison Barnes. And now, at the point, alongside solid (if not top-line) Tre Jones is the ultimate “veteran presence” — probably since he was like 19 — Chris Paul.

I fully recognize that almost-40-year-old CP’s days as the Point God are in the past. I also recognize that these young may wind up hating him by Christmas. But there is no more quintessential “adult in the room” than this man.

I know this team is coming off a second straight 22-60 season, but I look at Year 2 Wemby, Barnes and Vassell as options #2 and #3, the smart, solid rest of the core, Chris Paul whipping the program into shape on the floor, and Gregg Popovich overseeing the whole thing, and I see more than 35.5 wins.

Utah Jazz

Last season: 31-51, missed playoffs

‘24-’25 O/U: 28.5

The Jazz enter this season in a familiar position: seemingly desperate to tank but also seemingly too talented and well-coached to truly bottom out. Even at full steam ahead, I don’t know that this team wins more than about 30 games in this conference. And I don’t see an immediate try-hard pathway to contention.

Lauri Markkanen is under contract for another four years after this one, and neither he nor the team seem particularly inclined to part ways. The question now is whether Danny Ainge and Will Hardy talk him into some manner of aggressive load management or implement a team-wide tank around him. 

There;’s really no better time than ahead of a loaded 2025 Draft whose headline prospect, uh, profiles favorably for the home crown.