Reading Between the Lines - 2023-24 NBA Western Conference Preview - Part I
The half-dozen teams out West with the most realistic NBA Finals aspirations.
It is my solemn promise that not everything here will devolve into some 2500+-word tome. Not everything. This thing, though…
Welcome back to League Pass in L’Eixample, and the start of the second half of my Reading Between the Lines season preview (here is the Eastern Conference preview), which I started years ago at Hardwood Hype, in which we look at Season Win Total lines to frame team-by-team NBA previews.
So, why the “start of the second half” of these previews? Well, once I got going on the West, I found that, at the top of the conference there was just too much to say. So, faced with the decision to cut 70-80% of what I'd already written for the top teams and plow forward or make two pieces out of this thing, choosing the latter was a pretty easy decision.
So here, as a continuation of the Reading Between the Lines 2023-24 NBA preview is Part 1 of the the Western Conference, featuring the half-dozen teams with the most reasonable shots of reaching (if not advancing past) the conference finals!
Denver Nuggets
Last season: 53-29; won NBA Finals
Opened: 54.5
Current: 52.5
Prior to last spring, the last time Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray were both 100% in the postseason, the Nuggets reached the Western Conference finals in the Bubble.
Last regular season, that duo, finally fully back, along with a healthy Michael Porter, Jr, and a perfect complementary star in Aaron Gordon, under the continued guidance of Michael Malone, posted the West’s best record. Along the way, Jokić not only led the NBA in Win Shares and Win Shares/48 for a third straight season, his career-best .308 WS/48 was the tenth-best in the history of professional basketball. His .247 career mark trails only Jordan, David Robinson, George Mikan, and Wilt - and not by much.
In the postseason, the Nuggets faced comically little resistance, winning 16 of 20 en route to a first-ever title, including eight of nine in the conference finals and NBA Finals.
And, as he had in the regular season, Jokić was historic, with a top-ten single-postseason WS/48 and the fifth-best Total Win Shares tally ever.
That’s Peak Mike.
Looking ahead, if I had to pick a contender to be content managing the coming months in “see you in playoffs mode,” the Nuggets would be my pick. All the headliners, plus Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - who actually led the team in minutes last season - are back, and this team, like its talismanic superstar, doesn’t have anything to prove.
The problem is that in the bloodbath that will be the 2023-24 Western Conference, an extra loss here and there will probably be the difference between a top-three seed and home court (not that the Nugs haven’t shown that they can win anywhere) and #5/#6 and a fucking gauntlet. Any West team with designs on a deep playoff run is going to have to put up a pretty big number.
The losses of Bruce Brown and Jeff Green are very real and must be accounted for. There are holdover candidates here to do so, namely Christian Braun, Zeke Nnaji, and maybe Peyton Watson. Someone’s gotta actually do it, though. Given the stability of the core, they’ll likely fill those voids.
I’d have taken the “cruise control” version of this team to win at least 53 in the regular season. I’m delighted to do so with a version that’ll have to try the whole way through.
Phoenix Suns
Last season: 45-37; lost in conference semifinals to Nuggets (4-2)
Opened: 51.5
Current: 52
The focus in Phoenix is undoubtedly on another deep playoff run. Especially for Devin Booker. Having now established himself as a superstar, Booker will be consumed with sorting out the unfinished business of 2021. To do so as the last holdover from the Monty Williams-Chri Paul era would also probably feel pretty good.
At the same time, it’s tough to look at this situation and not see the pedal on the floor for the entire regular season.
Booker, plain and simple, doesn’t seem to have an off switch. If he’s not in street clothes, he’s incinerating someone’s hopes and dreams. Kevin Durant is Kevin Durant. For all the oddities of his career, Durant, when healthy, is basically a perfect offensive weapon who never mails in a game. And let’s not discount the restorative value of a first offseason in half a decade that’s not dominated by an Achilles injury, free agency, trade rumors, or Kyrie Irving.
And now, there’s Bradley Beal, who’s about to be on a good team for the first time in eight years. When everyone is healthy, he’ll be flanked by two bona fide, offensive-savant superstars. That means Beal only has to be a high-end third option for this offense to be unstoppable. There may be some learning required as he serves as the team’s de facto point guard but each of these guys is smart, skilled, and experienced enough to overcome any issues.
Also, Frank Vogel will be eager to show that he’s a top-tier coach. Last time Vogel had two superstars he won a title. Now he’s got a trio of Booker, Durant, and Beal. One of those dudes should be on the floor at all times, along with, thanks to the DeAndre Ayton trade, a pretty deep supporting cast of actual NBA guys
Assuming he’s healthy, Jusuf Nurkić will provide muscle inside.
Keita Bates-Diop and Nassir Little should offer size and switchability on D.
Josh Okogie offers solid perimeter D.
Eric Gordon, whose last meaningful action feels like it came in the Anthony Scaramucci era (not quite but not far off) is still a solid spot-up threat.
Yuta Watanabe and Grayson Allen each offer some of column A and some of column B.
How will it all look? There may be some mild growing pains but the early returns this preseason have been highly encouraging. If everyone stays reasonably healthy, this team should have little trouble becoming a 53+-win offensive powerhouse.
Golden State Warriors
Last season: 44-38; lost in conference semifinals to Lakers (4-2)
Opened: 49.5
Current: 47.5
Before the 2012-13 season, I wrote that the Warriors, coming off of a 23-win season, shrouded in questions - defense beyond Andrew Bogut, Steph Curry’s ankles, head coach Mark Jackson - had “an awfully big parlay to hit to ascend to mediocrity,” and that “I’ve got the Dubs UNDER 35.5 regular season wins.”
Thanks to Steph, Bogut, David Lee (!!), second-year Klay Thompson, and a pair of rookies, #7 overall pick Harrison Barnes and #35 over pick Draymond Green, that team won 47 regular season games, cruised past a weird, egalitarian Nuggets team (that featured future stalwart Andre Iguodala), and took two games off of a Spurs team that arguably should have won the title. After 51 wins and a first-round exit the following season, the Dubs dumped Jackson, hired Steve Kerr, and have since won six conference titles and four rings.
That I’ve never had lucrative employment in NBA prognostication shocks me as well.
Now, on the other side of that dynasty - not that it’s over but it’s probably coming close - I’m back to that “trying to thread a lot of needles” feeling about the Dubs.
Though he’s approaching his 36th birthday, Steph is still a singular and devastating offense unto himself. No issues there.
Klay, in his first full season since missing two years with ACL and Achilles injuries, turned in one of the better seasons of his career in 2022-23. It is worth noting that he slipped a bit in terms of efficiency, turns 34 in March, and may be contemplating the end of his Warriors career. That said, I’d be shocked if Klay is anything other than his usual, rock-solid professional self.
Draymond got paid again (4/$100 million) this summer and remains one of the influential defensive players in the game. However, he too will turn 34 early next year and is already on the shelf with an ankle injury.
Of course, there are the issues of emotion and intensity - Draymond’s always had both in spades. Along with his preternatural intelligence on the floor, these have set him apart from other players with equal (or greater) physical gifts. And they can be so, SO satisfying…
They’ve also caused their fair share of trouble. Like the post-LeBron nut punch suspension that likely cost the Warriors the 2016 Finals. Or chewing Kevin Durant the hell out, publicly and privately, in 2018. Or simply cold-cocking a teammate, as he did last preseason to Jordan Poole:
Given all of this, it's fair to question just how well Dray adapts to working alongside the also notoriously authoritative and prickly (on the floor) Chris Paul, who’ll be reconciling his new role as a declining almost-39-year-old backup small guard and non-authority in the locker room with the Point God that he's been for nearly two decades, and likely still is in his head. These guys are both grownups and professionals. I’d expect them to find a way to work together. At the same time, these are also two historically abrasive-ass dudes, so we can't completely discount the possibility of some internal strife.
A supporting cast of Andrew Wiggins, Kevon Looney, Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, Gary Payton II, Dario Šarić, and Cory Joseph is highly intriguing (Rudy Gay and Rodney McGruder less so; what rookie Brandin Podziemski has to offer remains to be seen) and befitting a true title contender.
If this group maintains health and harmony - and manages to win more than one out of every four road games - a run at 50 wins is within reach. Again, though, for a group that got less than 60 games apiece from its top four a year ago, that’s a tricky parlay to try to hit. Look for something between last season’s 44-win tally and the current line of 47.5.
Los Angeles Lakers
Last season: 43-39; lost in conference finals to Nuggets (4-0)
Opened: 48.5
Current: 47.5
I’ll do my best to not sound like a massive homer here. I fear failure in this endeavor.
The Lakers are once again title contenders. Maybe not in the very uppermost tier but they feel, honestly, even more than the 2020 team that actually won the damn title, like good ol’-fahioned, honest to goodness contenders. Perhaps not unrelatedly, they are also coming off of the least drama-filled offseason in recent memory.
Sure, there was the issue of LeBron’s right foot, which he injured on February 26 in Dallas, that cost him a month of action. Every indication is that a summer of rest, rehab, and maybe surgery, LeBron says he feels good.
That should go a long way considering that, despite a torn tendon, Bron still put up 33+ in three of the regular’s season final four games, averaged 22.2 and 11.2 rebounds (with a 20-20 Game 4) against Memphis in the playoffs’ opening round, 24.7, 8.8 rebounds and 5.5 assists (including 30-9-9 in a closeout Game 6) against the Warriors in the second round, and put up 40-10-9 in 48 minutes in an unsuccessful attempt to stave off a sweep at the hands of the Nuggets in the West finals.
Meanwhile, Anthony Davis averaged almost 26 points (on a career-high 56.3% shooting), a career-high 12.5 rebounds and two blocks per game, with an outstanding .226 WS/48. Though he appeared in just 56 regular season games, AD finished the season strong, starting every postseason game and playing an average of 38 minutes per. Across those 16 games, he averagdd 22.6 points, and league playoff-highs of 14.1 boards and 3.1 blocks, and, most importantly, went into the offseason healthy.
Finally not saddled with a summer rehab assignment, AD spent the offseason adding muscle and working on his game - and I think it’s going to culminate in his first MVP.
And, of course, on the heels of a revelation of a second season, Austin Reaves signed a new four-year, $56 million deal, put in an excellent summer with Team USA at the FIBA World Cup, and is poised to be this team’s third-best player.
The rest of the roster is a solid and diverse collection of depth. Sharing the ballhanding duties with LeBron and Reaves will be re-signed (and at this point underappreciated) D’Angelo Russell and free agent Gabe Vincent, with Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt (currently injured), opening night starter Taurean Prince, and Jaxson Hayes rounding out the frontcourt.
To reach its ceiling, this team will need Max Christie, still just 20 entering his second season, to carry his rookie-year shooting efficiency (41.9% on 3s, 87.5% FT) and all-around excellence in Summer League (19.8 points on 49.2%/55%/96.8%, with 5.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.6 blocks) into a bigger role.
And maybe Cam Reddish carves out a role for himself. And maybe Christian Wood…
Alright, gotta go.
Bottom line, if Bron and AD stay healthy and Darvin Ham finds a rhythm with the rest of the roster, this team will once again play into late May, if not June. On the way, look for them to rack up 50-52 wins.
At this point, I’m not so quickly realizing that I'm doing the thing that I so oiften do, and turning a story that’s meant to be comprised of quick blurbs into a multi-, multi-thousand tome that takes forever to put together and almost as long to read.
I’ve already divvied up the West into two parts but feeling like that might not be enough. Thankfully, my takes on the last two of the half-dozen likeliest teams to reach the Western Conference finals can be summed up fairly succinctly:
Los Angeles Clippers
Last season: 44-38; lost in the first round of the playoffs to Suns (4-1)
Opened: 46.5
Current: 46.5
For four years, since the acquisitions of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, the Clippers’ whole deal has been “look at the incredible depth and breadth of legitimate competent NBA talent. If George and Kawhi can just say healthy…”
I’m done.
Though he’s been characteristically fantastic when he has played (25.3 points on a near-50/40/90, 6.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1.6 steals), Kawhi has played 161 games over three seasons in four years (he lost 2021-22 to an ACL injury). George, meanwhile, has put up 23.2 (on 45/39/87 shooting), with 6.3 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and 1.5 steals. Also excellent. Unfortunately, he has only suited up for 189 games (or an average of 47 per) over four seasons.
It’s not so much that these two can't be relied upon to consistently be in the lineup at the same time, it’s that they can, in fact, be relied upon not to do so.
Also hurting the Clips’ case here is the fact that there’s a lot less to dig into on this once-vaunted roster. Most of the players of consequence (generous phrasing for some) outside of those two - Russell Westbrook, Nicolas Batum, Marcus Morris, Mason Plumlee, Robert Covington, and Normal Powell - are past their 30th birthdays - in some cases by a fair bit. And there’s not a true positive difference maker among them.
Even Terrance Mann, the rare “piece for the future” that we often talk about as a prospect, is already 27 years old. Shit, even rookie first-rounder (#30) Kobe Brownis is only a couple of months shy of his 24th birthday. They even like they're young guys old!
This is less a genuine title contender and more a disparate collection of talent that will soon be past it. That the Clips are included in this “contender” tier at all is a testament to the talent of George and (especially) Kawhi and the theoretical possibility of their simultaneous springtime health.
As with the Sixers, it’s becoming increase clear that it just ain't gonna happen here with this group. Neither, for my money, is 47 regular season wins.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Last season: 40-42; lost in play-in to Timberwolves
Opened: 43.5
Current: 44.5
There a dizzying array of talent on this roster.
Leading the way is a top-ten offensive weapon (and top-five MVP finihser last season) in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, whose creativity in attacking the paint, finding shots, and getting into the line makes him virtually unstoppable.
Alongside SGA at the top of the rotation are a do-everything offensive player who’s one of the best passers in the NBA in Josh Giddey and an intelligent, intuitive, and now bulked-up wong with no off switch in Jalen Williams.
And then there's Chet Holmgren. Rejoining the team after losing his rookie season to injury, Holmgren has shown all of the skills that had him poised to be Wemby before Wemby. Whether he’s got the upside of Victor Wembanyama is questionable but Holmgren’s ballhandling, smooth outside stroke, driving swoops to the basket, and elite rim protection on D end put him, if not on par with Wemby, then at least in his neighborhood. That he’s adding rim protection to a unit that ranked 13th in defensive rating last season without any suggests a leap may be coming
Consider: all of this, and not one word about Luguentz Dort, the “other” Jaylin Williams, sharpshooter Isaiah Joe, Kenrich Williams, Dāvis Bertāns, #10 overall pick Cason Wallace, or one of the NBA’s best young coaches, Mark Daigneault. This team’s best may lay in the future but there is an awful to get excited about now.
Young, deep, talented, and, to a man, tough as hell…I am so absurdly in on this team. Of the teams that are not expected to win 50+ games, OKC is, for me, by far the likeliest to do so.
Stay tuned tomorrow for Part 2 of the Reading Between the Lines Western Conference preview!